As altcoins about to get up from their sickbed? Let’s flip through the history books: every time quantitative tightening (QT) stalls, the altcoin/BTC trading pairs start to skyrocket!

**The pattern is clear**: The Fed’s QT policy is like a water pump; once it stops, those suffocated altcoins instantly inflate like balloons—shooting up fast. The logic is simple: QT drains dollars from the market, leaving both Bitcoin and altcoins thirsty. But when the pump stops? Marginal liquidity improves, risk appetite returns, and money starts spilling out of “safe haven” Bitcoin into the more elastic altcoins. The latter half of a bull market has always been the main stage for altcoins.

**But something’s off this time**.

First, Bitcoin has “changed”—in the past, when retail investors got money, they rushed to altcoins; now when institutions get money, they might keep buying Bitcoin ETFs. The flow of funds no longer follows the old path. Then there’s the macro environment: a single sentence from a Fed official is more effective than project teams writing ten pages of whitepaper. The switch for altcoin season isn’t in the hands of any whale—it’s in the mouths of policymakers.

More crucially, **liquidity alone isn’t enough**. There needs to be a new explosive narrative—like the last DeFi Summer—to lure funds out of Bitcoin’s comfort zone.

**What to watch next?**

Don’t just stare at Fed statements; look at hard data like overnight repo rates between banks—when real liquidity comes, the market will truly move.

BTC.D (Bitcoin market cap dominance) hasn’t dropped below 40%? Then don’t fantasise about a full-blown altcoin season. If Bitcoin doesn’t make room, altcoins won’t take the stage.

Where’s the new narrative? AI, DePIN, RWA—whichever story is sexy enough, that could be the trigger.

**To put it bluntly**: QT ending is only a “necessary condition” for an altcoin revival, not a “sufficient condition”. This time, it takes more than just liquidity; it needs a sufficiently exciting new narrative to pry funds out of Bitcoin.

Are you the one queueing at the door early, or the one who only remembers to run when the alarm sounds?