#2026年比特币价格展望 【Monday Market Snapshot】Shakeout Confirmed, Holding Support is Key

The fear index spiked to 41. Honestly, once the initial jobless claims data came out, the Fed's probability of a January rate cut dropped directly to 11.6%, and market liquidity tightened instantly, with many people tightening their purse strings. However, from another angle, there's actually plenty of good news — Florida's HB 1039 proposal is advancing, institutional sovereign-level buying interest is heating up; Bitmine has pumped another $176 million into ETH staking, and stablecoin trading volume hit new highs. The fundamentals actually have support.

Let's first look at $BTC's performance. This morning it was sawing back and forth at the 91000 level, with the daily chart already pulling back for three days. From the 4-hour chart, although the moving averages have a death cross, the downside volume is clearly shrinking, indicating there's quite a bit of accumulation in the 90000-90800 range. OI is still at elevated levels here, with clear long-short opposition, suggesting a wave of "wick" manipulation is coming. As long as the 90200 support above the 91000 level doesn't break effectively, it's essentially a normal shakeout during an uptrend. Upside watch 92500 as near-term resistance; only a solid hold above 94500 would mark the end of the adjustment.

Now for $ETH, continuing to move in sync with $BTC, price oscillating around 3115, with the Bollinger Bands opening downward. Bitmine's large staking is indeed bullish, but the on-board capital is a bit scattered, without forming unified strength. Near-term support has dropped to 3050; if the broader market stabilizes, ETH has a chance to build a local double bottom in the 3080-3100 range. Operationally, it's still advisable to wait for right-side signals before rushing to catch knives; watch 3200 as overhead resistance.

Tonight's non-farm employment data is a turning point. If the data comes in strong, it will further weigh on market expectations for rate cuts. Additionally, keep an eye on Tether's gold stablecoin moves and RWA sector developments; Florida's recent legislation could also bring major bullish catalysts — all worth continuous tracking.

Reminder: Don't overlook $SOL's movement.