BlockBeats News, March 26: The United States has recently been continuously sending signals for US-Iran negotiations, but has simultaneously faced repeated setbacks from Iran. Trump administration officials stated that the White House is working to arrange a meeting this weekend in Pakistan to discuss ways to resolve the Iran crisis, with US Vice President Vance potentially traveling to Pakistan this weekend to participate in talks with Iran. The US simultaneously insists that it has not received any signals of Iran rejecting negotiations.

At the same time, Iran took a hardline stance, stating that ceasefire and negotiations are currently not feasible, and laid out five conditions for a ceasefire: complete cessation of aggression and assassinations, ensuring that war will not be imposed on Iran again, war reparations, ending warfare on all fronts and by all resistance organizations, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran simultaneously issued a hardline warning that if forces hostile to Iran occupy Iranian islands, Iran may open a new battlefield in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire this month stands at 14%, with the probability of a ceasefire by the end of next month at 50%.