XRP News Today: ETF Inflows Near $1 Billion, Institutional Demand Surpasses Bitcoin? Short-term Target $2.35

The XRP spot ETF market has demonstrated remarkable explosive growth. Since its launch until December 5, in just a few weeks, only four ETF products have accumulated a net inflow of nearly $897 million, approaching the $1 billion mark, with a single-week net inflow reaching $230 million—far outperforming the net outflows seen in U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs during the same period. Meanwhile, Ripple gained an upgraded payment license in Singapore, with its utility expansion continuing to make progress. Driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong institutional inflows, the short- to mid-term price outlook for XRP is generally optimistic, with analysts now targeting $2.35 in the short term.

Capital Surge: How Has the XRP ETF Staged a “Latecomer Overtake”?

The market’s enthusiasm for XRP is surging through the most direct channel—spot ETFs. As of December 5, the total net inflow into several U.S. XRP spot ETFs has reached $897 million, just a step away from the $1 billion milestone. Notably, this achievement comes with only four products in the competition, making its capital-absorbing efficiency astonishing. In contrast, during the same period, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $87.7 million. This sharp “in vs. out” contrast clearly reveals a subtle shift in institutional capital allocation preferences within the crypto market.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse could barely hide his excitement, noting that XRP has become the fastest crypto spot ETF in the U.S. market to reach $1 billion in AUM, behind only Ethereum. He attributes this success to the release of pent-up demand for regulated crypto products. A more important catalyst has been the recent attitude shift from traditional finance giant Vanguard Group, which has started allowing its brokerage clients to invest in crypto spot ETFs. This move opens another gateway for traditional capital to enter the crypto world, providing millions of ordinary investors—those not necessarily tech-savvy—with a convenient entry point, thus greatly expanding the investor base for XRP and the broader crypto market.

Beyond Speculation: Utility and Macro Policy Form the Bullish Foundation

Capital inflow is the surface; underlying it is a substantial improvement in XRP’s fundamentals and a favorable macro environment. On one hand, Ripple’s global compliance expansion is progressing steadily. Last week, the Monetary Authority of Singapore approved an upgrade to its major payment institution license, enabling it to provide end-to-end payment services across Asia. This ongoing “utility narrative” is key to attracting long-term institutional funds; it transforms XRP from merely a trading vehicle into an asset with real commercial applications.

On the other hand, macro monetary policy trends are also supporting risk assets. The market broadly expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December 10 FOMC meeting. Although the future rate path remains uncertain, any dovish signal (such as hinting at more cuts in 2026) would significantly boost risk appetite and benefit flexible assets like XRP. Additionally, progress on crypto-friendly legislation in the U.S. (such as the market structure bill) and Ripple’s efforts to obtain a banking license from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) could provide further policy tailwinds driving XRP’s price higher.

Overview of Recent Key Bullish and Bearish Factors Affecting XRP Price

Potential Bullish Drivers:

• Capital: New XRP spot ETFs (such as 21Shares) are about to launch, further expanding capital inflows.
• Policy: The crypto market structure bill is making progress in Congress.
• Fundamentals: Ripple successfully obtains a U.S. national banking license.
• Macro: The Fed sends a clear signal of a rate-cutting cycle.

Potential Bearish Risks:

• Macro: The Bank of Japan hints at further rate hikes in 2026, triggering yen carry trade unwinding and market volatility.
• Institutional: MSCI removes digital asset treasury companies, weakening demand for XRP as a reserve asset.
• Policy: The U.S. Senate vetoes the market structure bill; OCC rejects Ripple’s banking license application.
• Capital: Large-scale capital outflow from XRP spot ETFs.

Technical Pressure: Can Fundamentals Drive a Trend Reversal?

Despite favorable capital and fundamental trends, XRP’s short-term technical structure is still facing challenges. As of December 8, XRP closed at $2.0733, up 1.35% on the day and outperforming the market, but still below its 50-day (around $2.2678) and 200-day (around $2.4745) exponential moving averages, which is typically seen as a bearish technical signal. Currently, the price is battling for the key psychological support level at $2.00.

(Source: TradingView)

Technical analysts point out that the market’s focus is on whether strong fundamentals (ETF inflows, utility expansion) can eventually outweigh temporary technical weakness. If XRP can hold the $2.00 support and rebound, the first upside target will be to break through the 50-day MA resistance. A decisive breakout above this level would be seen as confirmation of a short-term trend reversal, opening the door to the $2.35 resistance level. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.8239 (the November low) would undermine the medium-term bullish structure. Currently, the market seems more willing to bet on fundamental strength, anticipating a scenario where “technicals follow fundamentals.”

XRP Decoupling from Bitcoin: A Long-Term Narrative Worth Watching

The strong capital performance of XRP spot ETFs may be confirming a deeper narrative: XRP is to some extent decoupling from Bitcoin’s price action. In the past, XRP’s price was largely dominated by Bitcoin’s market sentiment. However, as unique positive catalysts for XRP (such as the SEC lawsuit settlement, ETF approval, Ripple’s business expansion) continue to materialize, its price drivers are becoming more independent.

This decoupling is most evident in the comparison of ETF capital flows. When capital flows out of BTC ETFs due to concerns about short-term overvaluation or macro risks, it may instead flow into XRP ETFs due to optimism over Ripple’s payment network prospects and compliance advantages. This suggests that investors are beginning to allocate to XRP as a standalone asset class with a unique value proposition, rather than just a beta play on crypto. If this trend continues, it could fundamentally reshape XRP’s role in investment portfolios, opening up new long-term valuation scenarios.

XRP’s recent market performance can be described as a “perfect storm” driven by compliance products, institutional adoption, and utility value. It no longer relies solely on community faith or market speculation, but has earned a strong vote of confidence for its future with nearly $1 billion in real institutional capital. Although technical resistance remains, the fundamental shift is already clear. This ETF-led comeback is about more than whether XRP can reach price targets of $2.5 or even $3; it signals a deeper industry shift: crypto investment is moving from pure price speculation to value discovery based on underlying utility and compliance maturity. XRP has undoubtedly become the most high-profile litmus test in this transformation.