XRP is currently in an exciting battle zone. It is now trading around $1.33, but there is a large concentration of options at the $1.40 level on Deribit — approximately $14.6 million in open interest is centered here, nearly a quarter of all XRP options on the exchange. This is no coincidence. As the March expiration approaches, this level could become a price magnet. Market makers who are short at $1.40 typically hedge dynamically, which often pushes the price toward the strike — traders call this 'pinning.' So, the real battle is between option sellers who want the price to stay at $1.40 and buyers who want a breakout. If XRP continues to rise beyond $1.40, the put options will expire worthless, and selling pressure could decrease. But if it drops, there could be a rush of hedging that accelerates the fall. Next week will be a key battleground. This level needs to be monitored seriously.

I just noticed that Bitcoin options worth $1.42B are expiring on Friday, accounting for nearly 40% of Deribit's open interest. Importantly, the max pain price is locked at $75,000, which could become a magnet for the price. Currently, BTC is around $71.7K, with about $3,300 of upward movement needed to reach that key level. From market trends, institutional investors have recently sold large amounts of call options at higher strike prices, which usually indicates a cautious bullish sentiment. Implied volatility is also decreasing, with the DVOL index dropping about 6 points, suggesting traders expect a relatively stable expiration without significant volatility. According to Deribit executives, despite geopolitical uncertainties, the market seems to be preparing for an orderly expiration. The put-to-call ratio remains healthy at 0.63, further confirming market stability expectations. Interestingly, the $75,000 level is also considered a key resistance by many analysts, and a breakout could trigger a stronger upward rally. Historically, market makers' hedging activities around options expiration tend to push prices toward max pain, which is why this level garners so much attention. On the other hand, XRP's performance isn't as optimistic. During the same period, XRP quickly dropped from $1.36 to $1.33, with trading volume significantly increasing, indicating institutional selling rather than liquidity exhaustion. Now, $1.35 has become the new resistance level, with multiple rejections at the $1.40-$1.41 zone. Compared to BTC's steady performance, XRP's decline appears somewhat abrupt.

So this week, all major altcoins basically rose by double digits or close to it, and this is the broadest rally since before the Iran war. Bitcoin briefly touched $75,912 but immediately dropped back below $74,400, which was previously a support level. It seems that the surge was more driven by derivatives activity than serious new spot buyers. Ether increased about 8.85% this week, XRP up 2.23%, Solana up 3.38%, Dogecoin up 1.18%, and BNB up 0.61%. Despite the insane intraday volatility, what’s more interesting is the weekly picture showing sustained momentum. But what really deserves attention is the institutional money flow data behind this rally. The spot Bitcoin ETF attracted around $767 million in net inflows last week, marking the third consecutive week of positive flows. Previously, we saw five weeks of outflows totaling over $3 billion earlier this year. So there’s a clear shift in sentiment from institutional players. Plus, the gap between gold and Bitcoin has narrowed drastically; Bitcoin now leads by 13.2% since early March, and their 90-day correlation has shifted from negative to positive. The narrative of digital gold, which was previously dead, is now starting to revive. Now all eyes are on the Fed meeting starting today through Wednesday. CME still predicts a more than 95% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, so the decision itself isn’t a big deal. What matters are the dot plot and Powell’s press conference. The current situation is a bit tricky because oil prices above $100 make a stagflation scenario seem inevitable, but the labor market is weak, with 92,000 jobs lost in February. The Fed is basically caught between two conflicting mandates, and how Powell articulates that tension on Wednesday could determine the direction of risk assets until the end of March. So we’ll just wait and see what Powell says, because that will drive the market next.