#Gate广场五月交易分享 The fundamentals saw a sudden change in Middle East tensions yesterday. The previously bullish situation became tense again. The U.S. claimed to have launched actions to divert the Strait of Hormuz, sinking an Iranian interference ship. Iran responded by firing warning shots and damaging U.S. operations in the strait. The oil-producing country UAE was attacked for the first time since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The Middle East situation has returned to tension, with crude oil surging sharply, U.S. stocks fluctuating, and gold falling again, narrowly holding above $4,500 per ounce. Specifically, the UAE Ministry of Defense reported detecting four cruise missiles from Iran, three of which were successfully intercepted over territorial waters, and one fell into the sea. The UAE confirmed that a drone from Iran attacked the Fujairah oil industrial zone, causing a fire. Keep a close watch on the escalation of the conflict; if it continues to escalate, gold prices may fall below $4,500.

Since Powell took office, whether he remains at the Federal Reserve has attracted market attention. Former New York Fed President Dudley said Powell’s decision to stay on as a Fed governor after stepping down as Chair would help reassure Wall Street and the public amid pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates. “The Fed has been under relentless attack from the president, and its independence has been questioned,” Dudley said. “Powell believes that continuing to serve on the Fed would actually strengthen external perceptions of the Fed’s independence. I think, if he’s willing, staying on is a wise move.” Powell’s term as Fed governor ends in 2028, and he chose to remain on the board after resigning as Chair on May 15. Meanwhile, the new Fed Chair Powell is about to take office, and market attention is focused on the impact after his appointment.

The world’s largest gold ETF holdings stand at 1,035.768 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; meanwhile, the world’s largest silver ETF holdings are 15,035.63 tons, a reduction of 6.45 tons from the previous day. Gold holdings remain unchanged, while silver has decreased, indicating a higher probability of bearish pressure.

From a technical perspective, on the 1-hour gold chart, gold again experienced a sharp decline yesterday, breaking through key support levels at 4560 and 4510 from a high of 4630. The lowest touched near 4501. The MACD indicator shows an accelerated death cross, with the green bars continuing to expand, significantly strengthening the bearish momentum.

Moving averages show that gold has already broken below the three most critical moving averages in the chart, including the Vegas channel and MA60, indicating a bearish trend. The probability of further decline is high. From a pattern perspective, breaking below the lower support of the ascending flag pattern turns the outlook bearish again. If the 4500 level is lost again, further downside space may open. The MA21 and MA60 moving averages have shifted from flat to a downward trend, combined with MACD momentum divergence signals, suggesting new lows are expected.

Summary: Today’s strategy is to continue looking for rebounds to short, expecting the trend to continue downward. The primary focus today is on the 45-55 range, where we already executed a trade. If the rebound continues, focus remains on 45-55. If this level breaks upward, then watch the 80-4600 range; if gold rises above 4610 today, the bearish view is invalid, and it may head toward 4700 or 4750. Support levels are at 4470 and 4420; going lower could reach around 4350-4330.

The current plan is to short on rebounds first, then consider going long if the decline accelerates, mainly based on volume and divergence signals. Once momentum shows signs of exhaustion, consider taking a position around 4420-4400. That’s the general outlook for now. Support and resistance levels can be referenced accordingly. The goal this week is to help everyone profit! If you have questions, contact me. Wishing everyone smooth sailing!