Yesterday, Bitcoin surged strongly and broke above 70,000, but the level failed to stabilize. Currently, the market is in a consolidation phase after the rally. If this level is not broken intraday, it remains an opportunity to short! BTC: Rebound to around 69,000-69,800 to short, targeting 67,000 and 65,000. ETH: Rebound to around 2,040-2,080 to short, targeting 1,950 and 1,850. ​​​#加密市场反弹 #元宵赏月领红包 $BTC $GT $ETH

The potential surge in oil prices due to the US-Iran war → Rising inflation expectations → Delay in Federal Reserve rate hikes/ cuts → Increase in US Treasury yields → Tightening liquidity → Pressure on crypto assets. Mid-term (1–3 months): Volatility and divergence, depending on the intensity of the conflict - Scenario 1: Limited strikes, quick de-escalation Rapid rebound after short-term sharp decline, returning to fundamentals like ETF inflows and Federal Reserve policies, with oscillating recovery. - Scenario 2: Continued confrontation, partial escalation Oil prices remain high, inflation pressures persist → The Fed maintains high interest rates longer → Liquidity continues to tighten → Crypto markets experience wide fluctuations and weakness; Iran’s mining affected, hash rate declines, mining costs rise, forming weak support. - Scenario 3: Full-scale war, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices surge to $100–150 → Global stagflation panic → Liquidity crisis → Crypto market deepens decline; in extreme panic, some funds may shift to BTC seeking alternative safe havens, but sustainability is doubtful. Long-term (3 months+): Macro-driven, structural opportunities - If the war prolongs and inflation persists → Shift in Fed policy (rate cuts) → Loose monetary policy → Crypto markets rebound along with risk assets. - If the US intensifies crypto regulation (freezing addresses, restricting transactions) → Major bearish signal, suppressing rebound potential. - Altcoins fare worse: Funds concentrate into BTC/ETH, small-cap coins face liquidity exhaustion and larger declines. Key indicators to watch 1. Oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz: whether there is a blockade, whether oil prices break $100. 2. Federal Reserve statements: inflation and interest rate outlook. 3. Crypto leverage and liquidation data: assess whether the sell-off has ended. 4. BTC/ETH capital flows: inflows or outflows from ETFs. War triggers declines, oil prices contribute to the fall; short-term driven by panic, mid-term by conflict intensity, long-term by liquidity. BTC resembles a high-risk liquidity asset rather than a safe haven.

Intraday market trend, continue to maintain the previous strategy of going long, placing appropriate orders, with good stop-loss levels. Short BTC at 70,000/73,000 resistance, support at 65,000/66,000, strong support at 60,000/63,000. Go long near support, go short near resistance. ETH 2060/2100 resistance, short; below 1800/1830 is a key support for going long; short-term support around 1900/1930. SOL 88/90 resistance, short; defense at 92#加密市场反弹