3月6日消息，美国民主党议员正计划推动一项新的监管法案，以加强对预测市场的监管。此前，市场上出现关于美国和以色列何时对伊朗发动空袭的投注，引发对内幕交易风险的广泛关注。
美国参议员Chris Murphy近日在社交平台发布视频称，一名与白宫关系密切的人士在周五进行了一个“非常具体的赌注”，押注美国将在周六对伊朗采取军事行动。Murphy表示，这类投注可能意味着部分参与者提前掌握了敏感信息，从而在预测市场中获取不公平的经济利益。
Murphy还警告称，如果允许类似的战争事件赌注持续存在，可能会产生严重的道德风险。他指出，一旦政府内部人员或相关人士能够通过军事行动信息获利，甚至可能形成“为了牟利而推动冲突升级”的潜在激励机制。
数据显示，在有关伊朗局势升级的消息传出前，预测市场上出现多笔异常押注。部分新注册账户在德黑兰首次爆炸消息出现前数小时就进行了相关投注，最终获利约100万美元。与此同时，围绕美国是否会袭击伊朗的事件合约累计交易规模已达到约5.29亿美元，显示出市场对地缘政治事件预测交易的高度关注。
在监管层面，Murphy正与美国众议员Mike Levin合作推动立法，试图加强对预测市场平台的审查。Levin表示，如果有人利用提前获知的军事行动信息进行押注获利，这种行为在法律和道德层面都难以接受。
Levin还指出，美国商品相关法律实际上已经限制与战争、恐怖主义等事件相关的合约，但当前规则在实际执行中仍存在漏洞，使得部分预测市场能够继续提供类似交易。
分析人士认为，此次争议可能推动美国进一步明确预测市场的监管边界。随着地缘政治事件与金融市场联系日益紧密，围绕战争事件预测交易、内幕信息利用以及市场合规性的讨论，预计将在未来一段时间持续升温。
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