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Last week's market performance was truly a love-hate experience. After three consecutive days of decline, the stock market finally rebounded with increased volume. However, even with this, half of the stocks in the market were still falling — the weekend's cheers were clearly insufficient.
What’s more heartbreaking is that the recent weekly rhythm feels like a pre-programmed sequence: gains on Monday and Friday, declines from Tuesday to Thursday. When you think it’s all over, it suddenly surges again; when you believe it’s stable, it crashes down. Many have been heavily wiped out by these market swings.
**Central Bank Data Released, Liquidity Still Ample**
The latest data from the central bank indeed signals positive signs. The total social financing incremental over the first 11 months reached 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion compared to the same period last year; by the end of November, the broad money supply M2 was 336.99 trillion yuan, up 8% year-on-year; RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months.
What does these figures suggest? The 8% M2 growth coupled with a 4.9% M1 growth indicates an expanding divergence, which typically implies that economic recovery momentum remains. More critically, the central bank injected 1.6 trillion yuan in liquidity in December (600 billion yuan via reverse repos on December 15 plus 1 trillion yuan via reverse repos on December 5). Although 1.4 trillion yuan matured in December, net liquidity injection was still 200 billion yuan, indicating that liquidity remains loose.
**Signals from the National Financial Work Conference**
Last week, the National Financial Work Conference was held, emphasizing the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, while also strengthening the orderly prevention and resolution of risks. Every time the central bank injects liquidity, the market usually reacts — the logic is simple: more money needs a place to go, and funds will naturally seek yield opportunities.
**Global Markets Influence the Entire System**
Recently, the three major US stock indices all declined: Dow Jones down 0.51%, NASDAQ down 1.69%, S&P 500 down 1.07%. Technology stocks broadly fell, and spot silver dropped over 4%. Such widespread asset price adjustments can directly impact the sentiment of the next day’s A-shares opening. However, from the performance of FTSE A50 and Chinese concept stocks, the declines are limited, indicating that overseas markets may not have a significant subsequent impact on domestic markets.
**What is NVIDIA Up To?**
The ultimate challenge for AI is power. NVIDIA will hold a closed-door summit next week to address the electricity shortage in the AI era. Goldman Sachs previously pointed out that the power consumption of AI server clusters far exceeds the capacity expansion rate of power grids, making power supply likely the biggest bottleneck of the AI era. Once this trend is confirmed, investment opportunities in related fields will emerge; previously hot sectors like space computing power and commercial aviation are also based on this logic.
**Market Sentiment Indicators to Watch**
Private equity funds' positions have reached a new high for the year at 82.98%. There’s a "88 curse" in the market — when private fund positions exceed 88%, risk usually starts to be released. Although there's still some distance, this number is steadily rising, indicating that market participants’ confidence is recovering while risks are also accumulating.
**Price Increase Chain in Chips**
Due to chip shortages, Dell announced price hikes of 10% to 30%. Once upstream prices rise, downstream industries like computers, mobile phones, and consumer electronics will face price pressures — a direct chain reaction in the industry.
Overall, the central bank’s liquidity injections, fluctuations in US stocks, new technological demands (power and chips), these factors intertwine. The market will continue to move steadily, without major turbulence. The key remains in observing capital flows — recently, there has been a cleanup of quantitative trading, and volatility in small-cap stocks is increasing. Participants should be more cautious when involved.
What’s more heartbreaking is that the recent weekly rhythm feels like a pre-programmed sequence: gains on Monday and Friday, declines from Tuesday to Thursday. When you think it’s all over, it suddenly surges again; when you believe it’s stable, it crashes down. Many have been heavily wiped out by these market swings.
**Central Bank Data Released, Liquidity Still Ample**
The latest data from the central bank indeed signals positive signs. The total social financing incremental over the first 11 months reached 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion compared to the same period last year; by the end of November, the broad money supply M2 was 336.99 trillion yuan, up 8% year-on-year; RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months.
What does these figures suggest? The 8% M2 growth coupled with a 4.9% M1 growth indicates an expanding divergence, which typically implies that economic recovery momentum remains. More critically, the central bank injected 1.6 trillion yuan in liquidity in December (600 billion yuan via reverse repos on December 15 plus 1 trillion yuan via reverse repos on December 5). Although 1.4 trillion yuan matured in December, net liquidity injection was still 200 billion yuan, indicating that liquidity remains loose.
**Signals from the National Financial Work Conference**
Last week, the National Financial Work Conference was held, emphasizing the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, while also strengthening the orderly prevention and resolution of risks. Every time the central bank injects liquidity, the market usually reacts — the logic is simple: more money needs a place to go, and funds will naturally seek yield opportunities.
**Global Markets Influence the Entire System**
Recently, the three major US stock indices all declined: Dow Jones down 0.51%, NASDAQ down 1.69%, S&P 500 down 1.07%. Technology stocks broadly fell, and spot silver dropped over 4%. Such widespread asset price adjustments can directly impact the sentiment of the next day’s A-shares opening. However, from the performance of FTSE A50 and Chinese concept stocks, the declines are limited, indicating that overseas markets may not have a significant subsequent impact on domestic markets.
**What is NVIDIA Up To?**
The ultimate challenge for AI is power. NVIDIA will hold a closed-door summit next week to address the electricity shortage in the AI era. Goldman Sachs previously pointed out that the power consumption of AI server clusters far exceeds the capacity expansion rate of power grids, making power supply likely the biggest bottleneck of the AI era. Once this trend is confirmed, investment opportunities in related fields will emerge; previously hot sectors like space computing power and commercial aviation are also based on this logic.
**Market Sentiment Indicators to Watch**
Private equity funds' positions have reached a new high for the year at 82.98%. There’s a "88 curse" in the market — when private fund positions exceed 88%, risk usually starts to be released. Although there's still some distance, this number is steadily rising, indicating that market participants’ confidence is recovering while risks are also accumulating.
**Price Increase Chain in Chips**
Due to chip shortages, Dell announced price hikes of 10% to 30%. Once upstream prices rise, downstream industries like computers, mobile phones, and consumer electronics will face price pressures — a direct chain reaction in the industry.
Overall, the central bank’s liquidity injections, fluctuations in US stocks, new technological demands (power and chips), these factors intertwine. The market will continue to move steadily, without major turbulence. The key remains in observing capital flows — recently, there has been a cleanup of quantitative trading, and volatility in small-cap stocks is increasing. Participants should be more cautious when involved.
