分析师:美伊冲突若持续数月,债务扩张或利好比特币

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Gate News 消息,3 月 9 日,宏观策略师 Mark Connors 表示,如果美国与伊朗的冲突持续数月,战争带来的财政支出增加、债务扩张及利率下行可能为比特币提供利好环境。其分析指出,战争通常需要通过发行更多国债融资,这将增加金融体系中的美元供给,从而削弱现有货币价值,并利好比特币等非美元资产。数据显示,自 2025 年中期以来,美国联邦债务年化增速约为 14%,若这一趋势延续,债务规模可能继续同比增长约 15%。Mark Connors 认为,这种持续的债务扩张本质上是一种"货币稀释",历史上往往有利于比特币表现。自美国首次对伊朗发动打击以来,比特币价格已上涨约 3.6%。他进一步指出,随着美国政府债务增加并更多依赖短期国债融资,政策制定者未来可能更倾向于降低利率以减少利息负担,而在"利率下降 + 债务持续扩张"的环境下,流动性通常改善,这正是比特币历史上表现较强的宏观背景。

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