#WCTCTradingKingPK
1. What is the CLARITY Act
In a nutshell: it is a bill regarding the structure of the US crypto market.
It addresses the industry’s main concern — uncertainty over jurisdiction: the SEC considers almost everything a security, while the CFTC views it as a commodity. The CLARITY Act clarifies their powers: the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodity markets, and the SEC regulates investment contracts.
Additionally, the bill:
· introduces three legal types of staking with clear legal frameworks,
· creates a temporary registration regime for crypto intermediaries,
· establishes a "20% threshold" — an asset with control below this threshold is considered a digital commodity, not a security (making BTC, ETH, DOGE, and LTC fully compliant with the law’s standards).
The CLARITY Act already passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 with clear bipartisan support (294 votes “for,” 134 “against”) and is now in the Senate.
2. What just happened
A major American exchange officially confirms: Senate negotiators have reached a compromise, and the final text of the reward system provisions has been published.
Let me remind you of the context: for several months, there has been fierce debate between banks and the crypto industry over stablecoin rewards. Banks (JPMorgan, Standard Chartered) are strongly opposed to crypto platforms paying yields for passive stablecoin holding — they fear a mass outflow of deposits. Estimates suggest that by 2028, deposit withdrawals could reach up to $5 trillion.
The essence of the compromise: "passive income is prohibited — active activity is allowed." American users can still earn rewards, but only for real use of platforms and networks, not for simply "holding" assets in an account.
This directly reflects the January Senate approach: rewards linked to payments, wallet usage, staking, providing liquidity, and participating in network governance are permitted — but any interest "just for holding" assets is banned. Specific forms of permitted rewards are detailed in the final compromise text of the bill.
3. Analysis: why this matters right now
The key point here is timing. The window for passing the CLARITY Act closes on May 21 — before the Memorial Day recess.
Senators Lummis and Moreno independently stated: if it’s not passed in 2026, the next window won’t open before 2030. The reason — upcoming elections. Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress, but after the elections, the balance of power could change dramatically, and the favorable political setup could disappear.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse sharply stated: if the CLARITY Act doesn’t pass the Banking Committee by May 21, the bill could be shelved until 2030. Galaxy Digital estimates the chances of passing in 2026 as 50/50 or lower, and Polymarket values them at about 46%.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is exerting strong pressure on the banking lobby. The White House’s official position already calls opposition from banks “greed,” publicly supporting the compromise agreements. Trump himself stated at a private event at Mar-a-Lago that he would sign the bill "immediately as soon as it hits my desk." The pressure is so intense that Coinbase and Circle have already agreed to the compromise, despite previously fighting for broader possibilities.
Coinbase, by the way, stands to lose about $1.35 billion annually from interest income on USDC and staking fees. The company previously delayed the bill precisely because of yield restrictions but now publicly supports it.
The next steps are straightforward: the bill must go through the Senate Banking Committee (expected after May 11, when the Senate returns from recess), then require 60 votes for full Senate approval, agreement on the versions, and presidential signature. About 8 working days between Senate return and the deadline.
4. What this means for the market
For the market overall — this is a turning point that will determine the trajectory of the US crypto market for years to come.
Market sensitivity is already high. Previously, delays in the CLARITY Act caused a record outflow — $952 million from crypto investment products in one week. The main hit was on Ethereum ($555 million outflow), mainly due to ETH’s key role in the asset categorization debate. Analysts forecast that passing or failing the law could trigger 10–30% short-term volatility.
For institutional investors — this is a prerequisite for full-scale entry: clear rules of the game will open the gates for major players who currently avoid complex legal issues.
For one American exchange and Circle — direct impact on 20% of their revenue related to stablecoins. For Circle, this is critical, as interest income from USDC is a core part of their business model.
For the XRP project — the biggest catalyst for institutional adoption; XRP has been waiting for the CLARITY Act for most of 2026.
For banks — containment of deposit outflows risk: now yields are only possible through activity, reducing the attractiveness of transferring passive savings into stablecoins.
For retail users — rewards for staking, providing liquidity, and other activities are permitted, but easy passive income "just for holding" is banned.
Unlike stablecoins, for BTC and ETH, the compromise almost doesn’t change anything. Both tokens, under the "20% control" standard of the CLARITY Act, are already classified as digital commodities (control rate 0% for BTC and <1% for ETH). This means their legal status is beyond reach and largely protected regardless of the outcome of stable negotiations. Former trader Peter Brandt also believes the law is unlikely to have a significant direct impact on BTC’s price. The influence will be more indirect: passage could attract institutional flows, while failure will keep uncertainty and trigger sell-offs, affecting the correlation of the TOP market.
5. Main conclusion
The fight over rewards has ended with a compromise, but the battle over timing remains the main challenge. There are no guarantees that the CLARITY Act will pass the remaining 8 working days, but the final provisions are already ready.
If the bill isn’t passed before the elections — the simple answer is: the US crypto market will remain in a gray zone for another 4 years, ceding initiative to the EU and Asia. Companies will continue to move abroad. Chances — 46% according to Polymarket and less than 50% according to Galaxy Research, but now a clear roadmap is on the table.
The debate over passive income is over — the industry has given its consent. Now we just wait until May 21 to see if the Senate can overcome political disagreements at the final stretch.
$XRP
![]()
