【Crise no Irão】Moody's avisa: preços do petróleo a manterem-se elevados nas próximas semanas　probabilidade de recessão económica nos EUA pode ultrapassar 50%

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that as long as the key global energy route, the Strait of Hormuz, remains closed and oil prices stay high in the coming weeks, the US economy will find it difficult to avoid a recession.

Before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, Moody’s leading indicator built using machine learning models already showed a 49% chance of a recession in the US within the next 12 months. Zandi expects that with the next model update, this probability will rise to 50% or higher. He stated on social media platform X: “Recession once again poses a serious threat.”

Weak labor market data is one of the main factors dragging down the US economic outlook. Zandi pointed out that over the past few months, aside from employment indicators, many other economic data have also weakened. Official data shows that US GDP growth in Q4 2025 is only 0.7%, reflecting a clear slowdown in economic momentum. The Iran war further intensifies pressure, potentially bringing a new wave of inflation to consumers already facing high prices.

Oil Price Surge Often Precedes Recession

Zandi emphasized that historical experience shows that a surge in oil prices often signals an upcoming recession. Since World War II, except for the brief recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, every US recession has been accompanied by a significant rise in oil prices.

He pointed out that although rising oil prices do not necessarily cause a recession, for example, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, oil prices surged sharply, pushing global inflation to decades-high levels. However, at that time, the US economy was supported by post-pandemic stimulus policies and had the capacity to withstand the Federal Reserve’s rapid rate hikes.

However, Zandi believes this time is different. He specifically noted that before the US-Iran conflict erupted, the US economy was already showing signs of fatigue.

“A few years ago, after the Fed tightened monetary policy, many believed a recession was imminent, but they were wrong. However, if oil prices stay high for longer (weeks rather than months), a recession will be difficult to avoid,”

Other analyses suggest that currently, US oil and natural gas production roughly meets domestic demand, helping to ease the impact of rising global energy prices. But Zandi warns that if energy prices suddenly spike, it will still deliver a “heavy and swift” blow to consumers.