Long-term bear market, down more than 60%. Core strategy: first control risk, then look for opportunities, never hold stubbornly, operate in batches.
1. First, do risk emergency measures (must-do)
- Clear leverage/reduce positions: close all high-leverage positions immediately; keep total spot holdings within 20%, maintain sufficient cash.
- Set hard stop-loss: break key support levels by 3% or fixed **5%-8%** and execute immediately, no fantasies.
- Cut garbage assets: assets with no fundamentals, no liquidity, purely speculative, sell off directly, don’t fight the trend.
2. Three mainstream operation plans (choose based on risk tolerance)
Plan 1: Conservative Defense (most stable)
- Hold only cash + mainstream spot assets (BTC/ETH), no derivatives.
- Only during extreme panic, bottoming out, no one discussing, use small funds (5%-10%) for phased dollar-cost averaging.
- Don’t chase rebounds; wait for weekly stabilization signals (such as volume breakout of downtrend line, bottom divergence) before considering adding positions.
Plan 2: Trend-following Light Short (more aggressive)
- Long-term bear market, rebounds are opportunities to short, not to bottom fish.
- Position: no more than 10% per trade, total short positions ≤ 20%.
- Entry: short when rebounding to key resistance levels (like 50/100-day moving averages, previous high-volume zones).
- Risk control: set stop-loss 1.5%-3% above resistance; take profit in steps (close 50% at 3%-5%, close 30% at 8%-12%, remaining trailing stop).
Plan 3: Left-side Batching Bottoming (high risk)
- Only trade mainstream quality assets, avoid altcoins.
- Divide funds into 4-8 parts, buy more as prices fall, don’t try to pick the bottom.
- Entry: first small test at 70%-80% decline; second after weekly stabilization/rebound with volume; third after breaking downtrend line.
- Stop-loss: close all if overall position drops **-10% or breaks previous low by 3%**, no averaging down.
3. Key signals (decide to shift)
- Weekly level: volume breakout of downtrend line + hold above 200-day moving average + MACD bottom divergence → trend may reverse.
- Trading volume: sustained increase after low volume → funds are entering.
- Market sentiment: from despair to hesitation to optimism → market sentiment is recovering.
4. Things you must NOT do
- ❌ Full position bottom fishing, leverage adding to positions
- ❌ No stop-loss, hold on stubbornly
- ❌ Frequent trading, chasing rallies and selling dips
- ❌ Bottom fishing garbage coins, air coins
5. One-sentence summary
Long-term bear + deep decline = first save your life, then lighten your positions, follow the trend, wait for signals, operate in batches.
