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Fidelity Shows Reliable Signal for Solana at 516% with One

Solana
SOLUSD
has fallen about 71% from its all-time high in 2025. Amid this price decline, holders are experiencing significant unrealized losses, according to the Q2 2026 Signal Report from Fidelity Digital Assets.

This decline is reflected in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric (NUPL), which has now dropped to -0.67. This level is typically associated with a median one-year return of 516%, although Fidelity emphasizes that this pattern may not repeat.

Fidelity Highlights a Bullish Solana Signal, Warns the Pattern May Not Repeat

In Q1 2026, Solana’s NUPL score plunged by 148%, from -0.27 to -0.67, as the price fell 33%. The figure falls deep into the zone Fidelity calls “Capitulation”.

“There are early signs of stabilization. The NUPL score has risen 29% from the early-February low of -0.94, which may be a capitulation point for investors who don’t want to hold losses. Still, the risk of further downside remains, and a new bottom formation is still possible,” the report states.

The company highlights that when NUPL SOL once touched -0.67, the median one-year return reached 516%. Meanwhile, the compound annual growth rate for three years at that level was 62%.

Even so, Fidelity warns that this forward-looking return data is based on only 10 historical observations for a one-year period, and only 6 for three years. This underscores Solana’s still-short track record and “the extremity of the current metric values.”

The report also finds that the correlation between the current NUPL level and future returns remains weak. More specifically, the relationship with future one-year returns is zero, while the three-year correlation is -0.16, indicating a weak inverse relationship over the long term.

This limited and inconsistent relationship aligns with Fidelity’s general view that lower NUPL levels are “generally more positive.” Still, the company emphasizes that past patterns are not necessarily guaranteed to occur in the future.

“Most importantly, the historical relationship between the SOL NUPL score and future returns may not continue,” Fidelity said.

Solana Network Activity Shows a Different Story

While prices are weakening, Solana network usage is actually increasing. The number of active monthly addresses rose 50% in Q1 2026, and new addresses jumped 35%.

“Solana usage surged even though the asset price fell. This shows Solana as a growing financial ecosystem where users continue to transact at high levels despite high volatility,” the report explains.

Stablecoin activity also remains steady. The average 30-day transfer value rose by about 8% to US$7.2 billion over this quarter.

Fidelity interprets this difference as evidence of a “strong and less cyclical user base,” suggesting that Solana is beginning to shift from its meme coin identity toward financial activity that is “more mainstream and sustainable.”