Recently, I saw someone compare the curve of stablecoin supply to ETF net inflows, and then start concluding "money is coming in." Frankly, correlation does not equal causation... An increase in stablecoins could be for reserves, or it could just be people moving funds from other chains or other platforms, or even market-making and turnover, not necessarily new outside money flowing in.

I've fallen for this kind of mistake before: not understanding and forcing a conclusion. Once I saw a bunch of indicators all "pointing" to good news, I got excited and increased my position, only to find out later that it was just short-term arbitrage and hedging activities, and I paid the tuition on the spot. Now I’m more relaxed; if I don’t understand something, I don’t act, at most I keep a small position as a ticket.

By the way, recently the incentives on testnets and the expectations for points have been hyping people up again, and guesses like "Will the mainnet issue tokens?" are flooding the screens every day... I also get tempted, but thinking about it, these seem more like sentiment indicators, not sources of funds. Anyway, I prefer to watch more and act less, so I don’t get led around by the curve.