#创作者冲榜 Extreme Fear for 46 Days, Yet Bitcoin Still Holding Steady Above $70K—This Signal Is Not Simple
The Fear & Greed Index is only at 15, remaining stuck in the "extreme fear" zone for 46 consecutive days. Yet Bitcoin still remains above $70,000—this disconnect looks quite stark, but it truly reflects the current market state this morning.
Last Friday, BTC quickly rebounded from the panic low of $67,400 back to $71K, and now it’s oscillating within a narrow range between $68,970 and $71,300 to digest the moves. ETH is at $2,161, up 1% over the past 24 hours, and still holding the critical support level of $2,100 for now.
Liquidations have eased somewhat, but the shadow of last week still lingers. Over the past 24 hours, total market liquidations amounted to approximately $234 million, with both longs and shorts being wiped out—around 87,000 traders exited their positions. Compared to last week’s extreme volatility, this is considered a “mild” version—on March 23, when Trump threatened to “destroy Iranian oil facilities within 48 hours,” it triggered 170,000 liquidations totaling $330 million; on March 19, the hawkish FOMC stance led to 135,000 liquidations worth $452 million. The market is now clearly in a “catching its breath” phase, though overall sentiment remains fearful.
Three macro factors are weighing heavily on the market: oil prices, Iran, and the Federal Reserve.
Risk appetite continues to be suppressed, primarily due to these three macro factors. Brent crude oil recently surged to $114 per barrel, though it has since pulled back to $94, still at elevated levels, which will continue to reinforce inflation expectations. The US-Iran tensions have entered their fourth week; although the “48-hour threat” did not materialize, the market remains cautious. Additionally, last week’s FOMC maintained a hawkish stance with rates at 3.5%–3.75%, and US stocks responded—S&P 500 down 0.37%, Nasdaq down 0.84%. Oil, geopolitics, and interest rates together exert triple pressure on risk assets.
The next key date is March 28 (Friday), when the PCE inflation data—Fed’s most closely watched indicator—is released. If the data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations could be pushed further back, and Bitcoin may need to test support levels again.
The “disconnect” between sentiment and price: 46 days of extreme fear, yet BTC remains...
What’s most noteworthy now isn’t actually the price, but that number: “46 days of extreme fear.” According to CoinGlass and Alternative data, the Fear & Greed Index has been in the extreme fear zone (0-25) for 46 consecutive days—the longest since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Interestingly, during this period, BTC has not continued crashing—after a 30% retracement from February’s highs, it stabilized around $70K
and rebounded; it is still trading above that level. This scenario—where sentiment is very pessimistic but the price does not collapse—is often a sign of a cycle bottom rather than a prolonged downtrend.
Part of this stability is due to institutional support. This month, Bitcoin ETF net inflows have totaled around $2.5 billion. Even with retail sentiment at lows, institutional funds continue to buy the dip.
Some analysts are even outright claiming “BTC has bottomed,” with targets of $150K by year-end, describing this as the “weakest bear market in history.”
SOL, XRP, and the Overall Market Status
SOL is at $91.19, up 0.35% over 24 hours, essentially trading sideways around $96K ; XRP is at $1.42, down 0.11%, showing relative weakness.
The total crypto market cap is around $2.5 trillion, characterized by low volatility and oscillation.
Funding rates have been negative for two consecutive weeks, and open interest has decreased to about $20.8 billion, indicating ongoing deleveraging.
In this environment, short-term upward momentum is weak, but the structure is cleaner, reducing the risk of cascading liquidations.
Three scenarios: If US-Iran tensions ease and PCE data comes in as expected, BTC could surge to $80K; if conditions remain unchanged and data is neutral, it will likely continue oscillating around $74K; if PCE exceeds expectations and geopolitical tensions escalate, then $65K support could come into play.
Right now, Bitcoin is essentially being driven by fear, but it has not yet collapsed.
