Trump's 48-hour ultimatum is really more for voters to see than for Iran. If oil actually hits $100, it's basically political suicide for a US president—there's no way he doesn't understand that.

But the issue is Iran's mindset has already shifted. After years of repeated sanctions, negotiations, and torn agreements, they've accepted one reality: there's no long-term credibility in dealing with America. So getting them to sit down and negotiate seriously now is much harder than before. They're more inclined to "return some color" first, then talk about anything else.

That said, a lot of people are thinking about this too linearly—saying Iran will push up oil prices to really hammer US stocks. That logic is a bit too idealistic. America today isn't the country that pure-relied on oil imports back then. Higher oil prices will definitely pressure consumption, but at the same time they're transfusing blood into America's own energy sector. You can say there will be impact, but not enough to completely crash US stocks with one blow.

What matters isn't really "whether to fight," but how far the fighting goes.

A guy like Trump doesn't need a real major war. He just needs the market and voters to feel that—he's tough, he dares to act, but things aren't spiraling out of control. So the more realistic script is probably the same old playbook:

Small-scale moves, proxy frictions, localized escalations, then keep talking tough on the mic, and keep the tempo in that "tense but not explosive" zone.

Iran is the same way—unlikely to go all-in directly. Actually blocking sea lanes or large-scale energy infrastructure attacks would drag themselves down too. More likely they'll stretch it out, grind it bit by bit, keep the situation suspended.

Bottom line: this isn't a game of who destroys whom ruthlessly, it's a contest of who better controls the rhythm.

So your final question—does Trump dare risk US stocks crashing to bomb power plants?

The answer closer to reality is: he'll make moves that "look like he dares," but won't actually crash the market along with it.

The show must go on, but the board stays intact.