Quantum Computing threatens Bitcoin? Saylor remains calm: it's just a marketing gimmick.

Recently, MicroStrategy founder and staunch Bitcoin supporter Michael Saylor, in an interview with CNBC, clearly downplayed the threat of Quantum Computing to Bitcoin, calling it a "marketing gimmick" and emphasizing that the adaptability of the Bitcoin protocol is sufficient to handle future risks. Meanwhile, industry experts and research institutions hold differing views, warning that the quantum threat may be more urgent than imagined.

Will Quantum Computing shake the foundations of Bitcoin?

The "threat" of Quantum Computing: the distance between theory and reality

The potential threat of quantum computing stems from its superior computing power, especially the challenge of the Shor algorithm and the Grover algorithm to the traditional encryption system. Bitcoin relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) and SHA-256 hashing algorithm, which could theoretically be cracked by quantum computers. Shor's algorithm can solve large integer factorization and discrete logarithm problems at exponential speed, thereby threatening the public-private key mechanism, which may lead to the inverse derivation of the private key, which in turn compromises the security of digital wallets. The Grover algorithm may accelerate attacks on hashing algorithms, albeit with a relatively low level of threat.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, researchers warn that quantum attacks could cause more than $30 trillion in losses to the cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin, due to its decentralized nature, may become the "primary target" for quantum hackers.

Saylor pointed out in an interview with CNBC that the threat of Quantum Computing is overstated. He believes that technology giants like Google and Microsoft will not develop Quantum Computing that can break modern encryption technology, as this would not only destroy Bitcoin but also threaten the banking system, internet infrastructure, and even national security.

He bluntly said: "This is just a marketing tactic to promote the 'Quantum Concept Coin.'" One fact is: Quantum Computing needs at least millions of stable qubits to break ECDSA, while the most advanced quantum chips currently only have 105 qubits, leaving a gap of ten years or even longer before it poses any real threat.

Bitcoin's response strategy: protocol upgrades and anti-Quantum Computing technology

Saylor emphasized that Bitcoin, as a dynamic protocol, has the flexibility to cope with quantum threats. He pointed out that the Bitcoin protocol undergoes software upgrades every year and has historically resolved security issues multiple times through soft forks or hard forks.

Bitcoin developers have submitted an improvement proposal (BIP) suggesting the migration of existing wallet addresses to quantum-resistant encrypted addresses through a hard fork to defend against potential quantum attacks. Additionally, startups like BTQ are developing quantum-resistant encryption hardware to provide extra protection for blockchain networks. Saylor believes that these technological advancements are sufficient to build a defensive barrier for Bitcoin before quantum threats become a reality.

User @SwissHodler stated: "Quantum risk is not unique to Bitcoin; banks and tech giants also face threats. The Bitcoin community is already researching countermeasures, so there is no need to panic." User @AlexOttaBTC referenced Saylor's viewpoint, stating that it "burst the quantum computing panic bubble" and pointed out that Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it more resilient when upgrading protocols.

But the latest report from Presto Research warns that the crypto industry is ill-prepared for quantum threats and may be underestimating the speed of technological breakthroughs. The report notes that the rapid development of quantum computing could pose a substantial challenge to blockchain security in the next 5 to 10 years. Especially for Bitcoin, the quantum-resistant upgrade faces two major problems: first, the consensus mechanism of the decentralized network leads to a long time for protocol changes; The second is that all Bitcoin holders need to actively migrate their assets to the new address, otherwise they may still face the risk of theft.

A Greater Threat: Phishing Rather Than Quantum Computing

Saylor also mentioned in the interview that the biggest security threat currently facing Bitcoin is not Quantum Computing, but phishing attacks. In 2024, the Web3 industry lost over $2.3 billion due to phishing attacks and private key leaks, far exceeding the theoretical threat of Quantum Computing.

Saylor believes that poor management of users' private keys and security vulnerabilities at exchanges are more pressing issues than distant quantum risks. The "2024 Annual Security Report" shows that phishing and private key leaks are the biggest pain points in Web3 security.

User X @CryptosR_Us said: "If quantum computing can hack Bitcoin, banks, nuclear weapons systems, and the entire Internet will collapse first. Saylor is right to say that phishing attacks are more of a concern right now. ”

Conclusion: cautiously optimistic, proactive defense

The threat of Quantum Computing to Bitcoin currently remains at a theoretical level, making it difficult to pose substantial risks in the short term.

In the game between Quantum Computing and blockchain, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin and the resilience of its community will be its greatest strength.

As Saylor said, "Bitcoin is an ever-evolving protocol." As long as the community remains vigilant and technology continues to iterate, Bitcoin is expected to stand tall in the quantum era. However, as Presto Research warns, excessive optimism may catch the industry off guard. The future's victories and defeats depend on the race between technology and time.