There's a big event tonight at 11 PM—the September PCE inflation data will be released. This is the indicator the Fed watches most closely, and depending on the results, it could directly determine whether there will be a rate cut in December. Right now, the market is heavily betting on a rate cut, with the probability hyped up to 87%. Everyone’s watching to see if that tension will hold or loosen.

My take? No matter what the numbers show, it’s not good news for the crypto market in the short term.

The reason is simple:

If the data cools off, is it bullish? Not so fast. The market is already fully priced in for rate cut expectations (that 87% is right there), so even if inflation is indeed mild, it’s already expected. This is the classic “sell the news” setup—any rally will likely be sold off quickly.

If the data blows past expectations? That’s even worse. If inflation is higher than expected, the Fed might slam on the brakes—either not cut rates, or just say, “let’s wait and see.” If global capital stops flowing into risk assets, Bitcoin could quickly test the $90K or even $89K support levels.

So here’s my advice: retail traders should not act impulsively right now. The entire crypto market is stuck in a narrow range, just waiting for this news to break the deadlock. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $92K, with bulls and bears fighting it out between $91K and $95K. Once the news is out, a 3–5% swing in either direction is totally normal.

What should you do tonight?

Remember: **Don’t make rash moves—watch first; if you must trade, do it quickly in and out.**

The biggest risk now isn’t missing out, but going in heavy and getting whipsawed by both sides. If the market suddenly spikes after the data, don’t chase—it’s probably a fake-out. If it dumps hard, don’t rush to buy the dip—wait for it to stabilize first. In a news-driven market, protecting your capital is much more important than making a quick buck.

In critical moments, holding your ground is what gives you the chance to catch the real trend when it comes.