ARK Investment head Cathie Wood recently made a rather optimistic assessment—she believes the U.S. economy is emerging from the shadow of the intermittent recession that has lingered for the past three years.

Her logic is as follows: interest rates are set to go down, market liquidity will return, companies will become more willing to invest, and productivity is also improving. These combined forces could usher in a new round of economic prosperity. Wood even said that 2026 could be a turning point, with both the economy and the markets having a chance for a full recovery. She was quite direct in saying that people can look forward to a "very pleasant 2026."

There are indeed signs of policy easing. The Federal Reserve's tone has changed, and there's a good chance of a rate cut in December—the straitjacket of high interest rates is about to be removed. Wood believes that rate cuts, combined with more lenient tax policies, will gradually release liquidity. This effect won't be immediate; it will take until 2025 to slowly spread and won't fully take hold until 2026.

Interestingly, she doesn't think rate cuts will cause a rebound in inflation. Why? Because productivity is rising. When productivity climbs, low interest rates actually stimulate investment and innovation, accelerating real economic growth. The expansion of productivity itself can keep price increases in check. So in her view, the combination of rate cuts and rising productivity will make the economy more resilient over the next two years.

As for where the productivity comes from, Wood points to the clustering effect in the technology sector, which is now being activated, with new technology applications beginning to boost efficiency across industries. This kind of structural change could open up a new productivity cycle, which is the core logic supporting her optimistic outlook.