Overnight, ETH went on another roller coaster - last night it rose violently and corrected in the early morning.

The four-hour chart shows that the MACD yellow and white lines are running closely above the 0 axis, the golden cross pattern is open, and the volume bar is enlarged. The technical signal is quite clear: the short-term trend is biased towards bulls.

**Key Information Overlooked by Most People**

The market focus is on the "87% probability of interest rate cuts", but this is already a digested expectation. What really needs to be wary of are two variables that could detonate tonight:

**Liquidity expectations turn**: Bank of America's research department predicts that the Fed may announce a balance sheet expansion plan to purchase $45 billion in Treasury bonds per month. Once implemented, this is equivalent to injecting liquidity directly into the market - the effect is far more than a simple 25 basis point rate cut. Risk assets such as ETH tend to be the most aggressive during liquidity easing cycles.

**Signal of split at the policy level**: The largest opposition within the FOMC meeting was reported since the 1990s. This divergence exposes uncertainty about the policy path. Any hawkish remarks that exceed expectations may trigger a reversal of market sentiment in an instant, causing violent fluctuations between long and short.

The core contradiction is not "whether to lower or not", but "whether to release water" and "how deep the differences are".

**The Hidden Pitfalls of Technology**

On the surface: MACD golden cross, yellow and white lines stand on the 0 axis, and the long signal is clear.

But digging deeper will reveal that this golden cross was formed in the high area after last night's surge. A high golden cross means that the short-term momentum is accelerating for the second time, and the explosive force does exist, but this is more like a re-energization in the sprint stage than an initial signal when the market first starts. The sustainability of this pattern often depends on whether it can be supported by continuous quantitative energy and news cooperation in the future.

The details that need the most attention: the verification of the volume and price cooperation and the pattern pressure level determine whether this wave of rebound is a short-term impulse or a trend continuation.