FOMC meetings really are the "truth detector" for BTC?



Looking back at the data from this year, I found an interesting phenomenon: the Federal Reserve held 7 FOMC meetings, and BTC declined after 6 of them. The only turnaround was on May 7th, when it surged 15%, but luck wasn't on our side the other times — the worst drop was a 27% plunge.

Currently, the market is eyeing the meeting announcement at 3:00 AM on December 10th, with the rate cut expectation already priced in at an 87.4% probability. However, judging by this year's "performance," BTC's behavior during FOMC periods is usually unstable, with volatility and downward pressure being the norm.

A reminder: the Federal Reserve Chair's press conference is scheduled for 3:30 AM Beijing time, which is often the most exciting moment for market movements. Whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term holder, it's best to prepare in advance so you won't be caught off guard by sudden volatility.
BTC2.15%
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NFT_Therapy_Groupvip
· 12-10 19:09
A 60% chance of falling? Then I'll bet it won't fall and give it a try.
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DeFiGraylingvip
· 12-10 16:53
6 dips and 1 rise, I can't gamble on this probability... I have to stay put during the 3:30 wave.
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BoredStakervip
· 12-10 16:53
6 declines and 1 rise, this probability is even more unpredictable than buying a lottery ticket. Why does it feel like the FOMC is just a nightmare for BTC...
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MEVHuntervip
· 12-10 16:49
ngl the 87.4% rate cut odds are basically baked in already... mempool's gonna be absolutely toxic when powell starts talking fr
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DegenWhisperervip
· 12-10 16:47
6 dips and 1 rise, no matter how you look at it, this data seems like the Federal Reserve is repeatedly educating us. The FOMC is indeed a mirror that reveals the true nature.
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LiquidityHuntervip
· 12-10 16:45
Six declines and one rise, what does this data indicate... Insisting on summarizing patterns is actually the easiest way to go wrong. An 87.4% probability of rate cuts leading to such a situation, and the liquidity gap is most evident on the night before the FOMC meeting—this is where the arbitrage opportunity lies.
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