FOMC meetings really are the "truth detector" for BTC?
Looking back at the data from this year, I found an interesting phenomenon: the Federal Reserve held 7 FOMC meetings, and BTC declined after 6 of them. The only turnaround was on May 7th, when it surged 15%, but luck wasn't on our side the other times — the worst drop was a 27% plunge.
Currently, the market is eyeing the meeting announcement at 3:00 AM on December 10th, with the rate cut expectation already priced in at an 87.4% probability. However, judging by this year's "performance," BTC's behavior during FOMC periods is usually unstable, with volatility and downward pressure being the norm.
A reminder: the Federal Reserve Chair's press conference is scheduled for 3:30 AM Beijing time, which is often the most exciting moment for market movements. Whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term holder, it's best to prepare in advance so you won't be caught off guard by sudden volatility.
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NFT_Therapy_Group
· 12-10 19:09
A 60% chance of falling? Then I'll bet it won't fall and give it a try.
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DeFiGrayling
· 12-10 16:53
6 dips and 1 rise, I can't gamble on this probability... I have to stay put during the 3:30 wave.
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BoredStaker
· 12-10 16:53
6 declines and 1 rise, this probability is even more unpredictable than buying a lottery ticket. Why does it feel like the FOMC is just a nightmare for BTC...
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MEVHunter
· 12-10 16:49
ngl the 87.4% rate cut odds are basically baked in already... mempool's gonna be absolutely toxic when powell starts talking fr
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DegenWhisperer
· 12-10 16:47
6 dips and 1 rise, no matter how you look at it, this data seems like the Federal Reserve is repeatedly educating us. The FOMC is indeed a mirror that reveals the true nature.
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LiquidityHunter
· 12-10 16:45
Six declines and one rise, what does this data indicate... Insisting on summarizing patterns is actually the easiest way to go wrong. An 87.4% probability of rate cuts leading to such a situation, and the liquidity gap is most evident on the night before the FOMC meeting—this is where the arbitrage opportunity lies.
FOMC meetings really are the "truth detector" for BTC?
Looking back at the data from this year, I found an interesting phenomenon: the Federal Reserve held 7 FOMC meetings, and BTC declined after 6 of them. The only turnaround was on May 7th, when it surged 15%, but luck wasn't on our side the other times — the worst drop was a 27% plunge.
Currently, the market is eyeing the meeting announcement at 3:00 AM on December 10th, with the rate cut expectation already priced in at an 87.4% probability. However, judging by this year's "performance," BTC's behavior during FOMC periods is usually unstable, with volatility and downward pressure being the norm.
A reminder: the Federal Reserve Chair's press conference is scheduled for 3:30 AM Beijing time, which is often the most exciting moment for market movements. Whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term holder, it's best to prepare in advance so you won't be caught off guard by sudden volatility.