Let's first look at the Federal Reserve: a 25 basis point rate cut in December is considered the concrete step, and the expectation of no rate hikes next year is also confirmed. The dot plot suggests one cut each in 2026 and 2027, but with Powell being replaced, there are still uncertainties. He mentioned that employment data might be inflated, so next Tuesday’s non-farm payroll report needs close attention.

Currently, BTC has reached a critical fork, presenting two scenarios:

**Scenario 1: 80600 is not the real bottom**
Since rebounding from 80600, the price has been weaving within an ascending wedge, reaching a high near 94500—this resembles a typical fourth-wave retracement. The problem is, if the wedge breaks downward, it might proceed to the fifth wave lower.

According to wave theory, the fifth wave often retraces close to the first wave, with a rough target around 70500. However, the 74500 level acts as a strong support in the middle, so if a new low is really confirmed, it’s crucial to see if the 75000 line can hold.

**Scenario 2: 80600 is the current cycle’s low**
In this case, the rebound is part of a leading wedge, which belongs to the larger wave B. The logic is that after a correction, there will be another surge, with resistance around 100,000.

This approach relies on a key premise—that the retracement isn’t too sharp, with 83600 serving as a defense line or stop-loss reference. Once wave B completes, there’s likely another wave of decline of the same level, with the depth depending on how high wave B can bounce back.

No matter which path unfolds, we are still in the betting phase. Don’t rush to make heavy bets in your operations.