#ETH #ETH Tonight's Key Levels and Trend Judgment

Based on multiple analyses, the core technical levels to watch tonight are as follows:
Key Resistance Level: $2,980 - $3,030. This is a strong resistance zone and psychological barrier above, and if the price rebounds to this level with insufficient momentum, it may face downward pressure again.
Core Support Level: $2,750 - $2,775. This is the recent "lifeline"; if it is effectively broken downward, the price could further decline toward the theoretical target of $2,630.
Bull-Bear Threshold: $2,885. Some analyses indicate that whether the 4-hour chart can hold above this level is crucial in judging the strength of the rebound.
🔍 Core Factors Influencing Tonight's Movement
Tonight's market is not solely determined by technical factors; the following key elements will play a critical role:
Macroeconomic Events Dominating Market Sentiment: All eyes are on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. The market expects a 99% chance of rate hike, which could trigger a global "carry trade" unwind, draining liquidity and exerting significant pressure on risk assets like Ethereum. Before the decision is announced, market sentiment remains cautious, and volatility may increase.
Internal Structural Pressure Emerges: On-chain data shows that long-term holders (HODLers) are experiencing a fierce sell-off, while institutional demand via ETFs is weakening, leading to reduced market absorption capacity. Additionally, a large options expiration on December 26th is expected to heighten market volatility.
Technical Pattern Is Bearish: Multiple analyses suggest that Ethereum's 4-hour chart may be forming a "Head and Shoulders" bearish pattern, with a potential downside target around $2,630. Its moving averages are arranged in a bearish configuration, and indicators like RSI and MACD also show strong bearish momentum, making short-term reversal difficult.
💡 Trading Strategy Reference
Before major events, market direction is uncertain. Trading should focus on caution and risk management:
Bullish Approach: Consider small long positions when the price pulls back to support around $2,775 and shows signs of stabilization, with targets around $2,880 - $2,930. However, strict stop-losses are necessary.
Bearish Approach: If the price rebounds to the strong resistance zone near $3,000 and upward momentum weakens, consider small short positions, with a stop-loss placed above $3,080.
Overall Principle: Given the current high volatility, approaching the weekend and options expiration, it is essential to control position sizes and set strict stop-losses. Avoid blindly chasing gains or losses before key events; maintaining a wait-and-see attitude and patience may be a more prudent strategy.