December 25, 2025 08:00 Key Point Trading Plan (BTC Contract Levels)

At everyone's request, the contract levels are now published (for spot layout, please see the previous content).
As a trader committed to “profit and loss originate from the same source,” I have built a purely chart-based mechanical trading system for you. The current price is in the middle of a key oscillation zone characterized by “strong resistance above and support below.” The following plan will focus on “range high selling and low buying” opportunities with a deterministic approach, ensuring a long-term probability advantage through strict discipline.

1. Multi-timeframe integrated analysis and key level judgment

Market structure analysis:
Daily chart: Price is being suppressed by MA21 (93,785.2) over the long term but has stabilized above MA5 and MA13. The structure is a rebound high oscillation within a long-term downtrend; the overall direction is unclear, and it is a period of direction choice.
4-hour chart: Price oscillates within a large range of 86,200 - 90,450, with moving averages tightly clustered. The structure is a standard rectangular consolidation with clear upper and lower bounds. This is the core basis for “range trading” layout.
1-hour chart: Price moves in the middle of the range without a clear direction, waiting for boundary tests.

2. Key level judgment:
Bull-bear dividing line: (88,000 USDT) (recent oscillation midpoint and psychological barrier, but not a core trading point).
Upper resistance levels (range upper boundary, shorting zone):
P3: #BTC行情分析 90,450 (clear upper boundary of the range, tested multiple times effectively, core shorting zone)
P2: 89,600 (secondary resistance in the upper half of the range)
P1: 88,800 (initial resistance near the midpoint)
Lower support levels (range lower boundary, longing zone):
S1: 86,200 (clear lower boundary of the range, tested multiple times effectively, core longing zone)
S2: 85,200 (previous low of 85,220.2, extreme position below the range, strong support)
S3: 84,400 (break below would destroy the rectangular consolidation structure, indicating deep bearishness)

Core logic:
Price oscillates within the wide range of 86,200 - 90,450.
The only high-probability strategy is to set up long positions near the lower boundary (S1) and short positions near the upper boundary (P3), executing pure range high selling and low buying.
All levels in between are to be observed.

3. Supreme execution rules

1. After market open, set condition orders properly. Strictly prohibit manual opening of positions at any intermediate price level (at any time during trading, no more than 1 open position).
2. Position and order management:
If a long position at S1 is filled, keep the short order at P3 pending; if a short at P3 is filled, keep the long order at S1 pending. Multiple orders are allowed, but holding multiple positions simultaneously is forbidden.
3. After any strategy is executed and profit or stop-loss is hit, the same strategy orders can be re-placed.
4. Dynamic risk control switch:
The only risk switch: If the price drops with volume below 84,400 (breaks S3), the “Core Strategy 1” long logic will be permanently invalidated. The market may enter a one-sided decline; all long positions should be deleted, only keeping the rebound shorting strategy.

Final advice for probability traders:
The current market is a textbook “wide-range oscillation,” which is a paradise for “position-first” traders. Going long at 86,200 and short at 90,450 essentially bets on the price repeatedly fluctuating within the range. The high win rate comes from “position” itself, not any technical indicator.
The entire advantage of this system lies in: abandoning all predictions, only doing the most certain things.
Using the natural barriers of supply and demand (the upper and lower bounds of the range), with fixed risk ambushes, let the market inertia pay us.
This strategy is monotonous, repetitive, and boring, but with long-term execution and strict entry discipline, you will achieve stable profits.