Non-farm payrolls release triggers immediate bullish and bearish reactions

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1:【Negotiations on the US Crypto Market Structure Bill Hit a Snag: DeFi Regulation and Stablecoin Yield Differences Are Main Disputes】

2:【Japanese Bond Market Sell-off Continues into the New Year】

What do Bitcoin and Ethereum look like today? Bitcoin’s bullish start may have ended, with the rebound stopping at 95,000 and a continued pullback. From this week’s market, it’s clear that Bitcoin’s spot ETF is still experiencing ongoing outflows.

Let’s first talk about MicroStrategy. As the first company to hold Bitcoin, its main business is accumulating coins. Recently, its stock has been declining, falling to the MSI index level. There’s a saying that this stock should be removed from the index list, but just yesterday, MSCI suddenly announced that they would temporarily keep it in. As soon as that was said, MicroStrategy’s stock surged 6% after hours. Currently, it only indicates that MicroStrategy isn’t as risky for now, but in the long term, the risk hasn’t disappeared. Even so, after this turbulence, market confidence in it has taken a hit again.

Additionally, regarding yesterday’s initial jobless claims data: previous value 20; forecast 21; actual 20.8. The numbers are close, so the impact is limited. The most important thing is to wait for tonight’s non-farm payroll report. Today’s market may be relatively flat, with larger movements expected on Friday when more data is released.

BTC: Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline in the early morning yesterday, then after the data release in the evening, it dipped to around 89,100, which is the cost platform level of the first institutional entry on January 3. The 1-hour chart shows a cyclical secondary retest of support. Although it hasn’t effectively broken below 89,000, the 4-hour and 12-hour volume-price relationships still indicate a bearish downtrend. Currently, Bitcoin is in a narrow range of bullish and bearish battles, with bulls needing to confirm whether 91,500 can hold. Only if it stabilizes can a second wave of upward momentum continue. Support below is at 90,400; a break below would lead to a strong support zone at 89,000-85,700.

ETH: Ethereum’s support zone is between 3050-3030, with resistance at 3150-3180. Today’s Ethereum operation is aligned with Bitcoin. During the consolidation phase, with structural narrowing of the range, there are no strong breakout signals. If it retraces to support and doesn’t break through, it can be bought low. If it rebounds to resistance and doesn’t break through, and volume can’t support further moves, reduce positions and wait for a second retest to buy again. ![]#BTC#https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-d78d8b89d6-a5229a74ad-8b7abd-e2c905.webp

One sentence summary of today’s intraday operation: The market lacks liquidity during the day, so wait for tonight’s data release. During the day, trade within a narrow range, take profits quickly, and avoid greed. Don’t get caught in sideways churning; wait for a new trend to emerge so you won’t panic. Therefore, buy on dips at support, sell on rebounds at resistance, and take small profits—that’s the safest rhythm today. ETH

In this recent bull market, I repeatedly emphasize that I believe the underlying logic of the crypto market has changed. The factors influencing market trends are now more complex than before, and this complexity is something investors have not experienced in previous bull and bear markets. I am Tommy, a trader and practitioner in the Web3 space, here to help you with real-time key entry points and personalized strategies. Click on my profile to join the community. We have professional trading instructors available around the clock to help you stay calm and avoid going solo in tough times.