Today I reviewed on-chain data and found that the actions of some major players are actually opposite—which really explains the current situation well.

The specific scenario is as follows: some large ETH long positions are already floating with over $5 million in losses, yet there are accounts aggressively adding $62 million worth of 3x leveraged ETH longs; at the same time, another group of big players is rapidly liquidating SOL longs while firmly holding BTC shorts.

What does this reflect? It indicates a clear divergence between bulls and bears at a critical market juncture. Some believe ETH has already fallen too much and are looking to buy the dip; others are still betting on BTC and altcoins to continue declining. Both sides are testing bottoms and tops, and the market is in a stalemate.

From the support levels, ETH shows strong absorption between 3000 and 3100. Institutions willing to leverage 3x here are not acting blindly, but overall market sentiment remains weak. A true reversal signal would be a solid hold above 3200. BTC is still oscillating, with whale shorts showing no movement, implying the decline may not be fully over. Whether the 90,000 to 92,000 range can hold is crucial. SOL has been significantly reduced, indicating funds are rotating assets; caution is advised regarding whether the entire altcoin ecosystem might come under pressure.

Practical trading advice: don’t rush to follow the trend at this stage, especially with leverage trading. Whales are still testing directions, and retail traders shouldn’t take unnecessary risks. The key is to focus on two things—whether ETH can effectively break above 3200, and whether BTC has truly fallen below 90,000. Until clear directional signals emerge, keeping positions below 50% is safer.

On-chain data can provide reference, but it’s not foolproof. Blindly following whale orders can easily lead to being caught off guard; it’s important to consider the overall market structure. Currently, bulls and bears are brewing their positions amid divergence. Once one side makes a decisive move, the trend will truly be established. That’s when following in will be safer.