BaiKe Biotech's First Loss After Listing: Shingles Vaccine Faces Return Wave Is the 2023 Sales Highlight Just a "Paper Prosperity"?

Source: Daily Economic News Author: Chen Xing

On the evening of February 26, Baike Biological (SH688276, stock price 19.63 yuan, market value 8.1 billion yuan) released its performance forecast for 2025.

For the full year of 2025, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 592 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.85%; net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 272 million yuan, a significant decline of 217.22% compared to a profit of 232 million yuan in the same period last year, marking the company’s first loss since listing.

This loss not only indicates a sharp decline in the company’s performance but also exposes a harsh reality: the star product once regarded as the “second growth curve,” the shingles vaccine, is facing a large-scale “return wave.”

In the first half of 2025 alone, returns due to expired vaccines that were not administered reached 147,700 doses, corresponding to a revenue reduction of 196 million yuan. This vaccine has a shelf life of 24 months—meaning the returned batches were those that were highly popular in the first year of launch in 2023.

Looking back at 2023, the launch of the shingles vaccine “Ganwei” once brought Baike Biological a performance peak: within 8 months of listing, it achieved 883 million yuan in revenue, with sales of 663,500 doses and a gross profit margin of 97.5%. However, with many vaccines reaching expiration and being returned, how many of these vaccines actually made it into consumers’ arms remains a huge question.

Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 is -272 million yuan, a decrease of 217.22%.

Ganwei is the first domestically produced shingles vaccine for people over 40 and the first domestic shingles vaccine, breaking the long-standing monopoly of GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) Shingrix in this market. In 2023, backed by the halo of being the “first domestically produced shingles vaccine suitable for people over 40,” Baike Biological’s performance was once promising.

However, the vaccination rate for shingles in China has remained low, and Baike Biological experienced its first annual loss after listing in 2025. The company stated that the performance change in 2025 was mainly influenced by factors such as public awareness of the disease and vaccine consumption willingness. Some of the confirmed revenue from the live attenuated shingles vaccine expired without being administered, leading to returns and revenue decline.

The company also mentioned that to enhance public awareness of shingles prevention, fulfill corporate social responsibility, and increase vaccination coverage, it actively promoted benefit projects and adjusted prices, resulting in a decrease in the unit price of the shingles vaccine, which contributed to revenue decline. Additionally, due to declining birth rates and increased market competition, sales of the varicella live attenuated vaccine decreased year-on-year, also leading to revenue reduction.

Daily Economic News reporter noted that Baike Biological’s performance slowdown was already evident in the first half of 2025.

In the first half of 2025, the company’s operating income was 285 million yuan, down 53.93% year-on-year; net profit was -73.57 million yuan. The decline was mainly due to decreased sales of the shingles vaccine, with sales volume of -17,300 doses and sales revenue of -65.226 million yuan during the period.

Why are the sales volume and revenue of the shingles vaccine negative? Baike Biological explained in response to the inquiry about the 2025 semi-annual report that the company’s shingles vaccine sales prices are divided into two types: the regular price (including tax) of 1,369 yuan per dose, and a discounted price (3 to 8 discounts off the normal price) used in benefit projects. During the reporting period, under the first pricing model, 86,500 doses were sold, generating about 115 million yuan in revenue; under the benefit activities, 43,900 doses were sold, generating 29.5 million yuan.

However, Baike Biological encountered returns at this time. In the first half of 2025, products from previous years that had confirmed revenue but were not actually administered were sold at benefit project prices, leading to a revenue reduction of 13.477 million yuan; some previously confirmed revenue vaccines expired without being sold, resulting in returns of 147,700 doses, corresponding to a revenue deduction of 196 million yuan.

Returns and revenue reductions in the first half of 2025 accounted for about 20% of the revenue from shingles vaccines in 2023.

The vaccine industry in 2025 is “full of lament,” and the shingles vaccine was originally considered one of the “least competitive” products. As of now, Baike Biological and GSK are the only two approved manufacturers of shingles vaccines in China.

In 2023, the initial product launch brought a brief performance peak for Baike Biological. According to data, the shingles vaccine achieved 883 million yuan in revenue, with 663,500 doses sold and a gross profit margin of 97.5%.

In 2024, the situation sharply deteriorated. According to the company’s annual report and related data, the vaccine’s total revenue for 2024 was 251 million yuan, a drastic 71.54% decrease from 2023’s 883 million yuan, with sales volume dropping by 69.8% year-on-year.

Baike Biological responded on investor interaction platforms that the “Ganwei” shingles vaccine has a shelf life of 24 months (two years)—meaning the vaccines sold in 2023 would reach expiration in 2025.

The reporter estimated that the revenue reduction in the first half of 2025 accounted for about 22% of the 2023 sales revenue of the shingles vaccine. An industry insider told reporters, “This is actually a common practice in the vaccine industry—first distributing the stock to disease control centers, then conducting vaccination. But Baike Biological’s approach was more aggressive; they probably didn’t anticipate such poor vaccination uptake when they initially stocked.”

Meanwhile, the aggressive promotion in 2023 also led to issues like high accounts receivable.

By the end of 2023, the company’s accounts receivable and notes receivable totaled 1.567 billion yuan, accounting for 85.89% of the year’s operating income, with inventory reaching 199 million yuan.

An industry insider explained, “This confirms that the high growth in 2023 was accompanied by large-scale channel stocking. Although the goods were shipped and recognized as revenue, much of the funds were not recovered but remained in accounts receivable. This is a common problem in the vaccine industry—everyone faces it.”

In 2024, as terminal sales cooled, inventory pressure surged. The annual report showed that at the end of 2024, accounts receivable stood at 1.406 billion yuan. The real red flag was the inventory data: amid sharply declining sales, the company failed to adjust production in time, leaving inventory high at 171 million yuan, with the stock of shingles vaccines alone reaching 1.19 million doses.

By 2025, both accounts receivable and inventory faced “dual pressure.” According to the semi-annual balance sheet, as of June 2025, accounts receivable was 1.177 billion yuan, slightly down from the end of 2024, but inventory had increased to 279 million yuan, a rise of over 60% compared to the end of 2024.

“This means that besides the expired vaccines that need to be written off, a large amount of stock vaccines may face expiration and impairment risks,” the insider added.

Latest prices are only one-third of the original

The insider analyzed that the large backlog of shingles vaccines that were not administered is related to their high unit price and the fact that the target population—older adults sensitive to price—are less likely to get vaccinated.

At market launch, according to procurement information published on the Fujian Provincial Public Resources Trading Center in 2023, Baike Biological’s live attenuated shingles vaccine (Ganwei) was sold at 1,369 yuan per dose, requiring only one dose for full vaccination.

GSK’s recombinant shingles vaccine (Shingrix) was priced at 1,598 yuan per bottle, requiring two doses, with a total cost of about 3,200 yuan.

Starting in 2025, GSK launched a price war. From the second quarter of that year, the vaccine was promoted with “buy one, get one free” offers in many regions nationwide. Under the promotion, recipients only paid for the first dose and the second dose’s service fee, reducing the total price to about 1,650 yuan—effectively a 50% discount.

Baike Biological also followed suit with price cuts. In early June 2025, regions like Shaanxi launched 50% discounts, lowering prices to about 680–700 yuan. By the second half of 2025, the discount rate was further increased. In early November, Baike Biological revealed at an investor conference that the discounted price had been adjusted to 30%–80% of the normal price. On December 23, 2025, a pricing notice from Jiangxi CDC showed that Baike Biological’s shingles vaccine procurement price was officially reduced from 1,375 yuan per dose to 464 yuan per dose, a reduction of about 66%, pushing the price war into a new phase.

In 2026, Baike Biological further lowered the online listing prices in multiple regions. For example, on January 22, the Jilin Provincial Public Resources Trading Center announced that Baike Biological applied to reduce the shingles live attenuated vaccine listing price from 1,369 yuan per dose to 458 yuan per dose.

Due to pricing and consumer perception factors, the vaccination rate for shingles in China remains very low.

Regarding questions about the shingles vaccine, Baike Biological responded via email that, based on a cautious assessment of the vaccine’s characteristics and market environment changes, the company launched benefit initiatives in 2025, offering products at three to eight discounts off the normal price.

The company actively optimized and adjusted the sales pricing of the shingles vaccine to reduce the economic burden on the public, especially middle-aged and elderly groups, thereby promoting broader coverage of the target population. In the long term, this price adjustment is expected to significantly lower the vaccination cost for the public, improve the accessibility and penetration of the vaccine in China, and further stimulate market demand.

To actively address challenges, the company is systematically promoting multiple marketing initiatives to unlock market potential.