CINNO Research: Domestic consumer AI/AR sales are expected to increase by 109% in 2025. Thunderbird leads the way, with Xiaomi(01810) close behind.

CITIC Securities Finance APP learned that according to the latest data from CINNO Research, the domestic consumer AI/AR market will achieve a historic breakthrough in 2025 — total annual sales reaching 696,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 109%. Brands like Thunderbird, Xiaomi (01810), XREAL, Rokid, and others, with their innovative product matrices, have become core growth engines. Behind this growth, there are both structural highlights such as category differentiation and deep challenges like insufficient product strength and homogenized competition. The market is accelerating its transition from “hardware stacking” to “ecosystem competition.” It is expected that in 2026, domestic consumer sales will grow by more than 65% year-on-year, or even higher.

1. In 2025, domestic consumer AI/AR market sales surged by 109% year-on-year

In 2025, the domestic consumer AI/AR market achieved a milestone — total sales of 696,000 units, with a growth of 109% year-on-year, showing a dual feature of “mature categories steady growth and emerging categories explosive breakthrough.” From the category structure:

Split-type AR glasses as a mature category, sold 368,000 units throughout the year, up 53%. Despite facing challenges like single functions and homogenized competition, they remain the core entry point for the public to access AR technology, thanks to a rich price range of 999 to 5,000 yuan and continuous experience upgrades.

All-in-one AR glasses (with screens), driven by brands like Leqi, Meizu, and Yingmu, saw sales soar by 176% year-on-year, becoming a benchmark device for “all-day wear + lightweight + high-immersion experience” scenarios. Their consumer-grade functions such as translation, navigation, and AI assistants have become normalized, marking a shift from “tool attribute” to “smart companion” paradigm.

Screenless AI glasses led the year with a 319% YoY growth, especially during Q2 and Q3. Tech giants like Meta, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Baidu launched over 30 new models, priced between 500 and 4,500 yuan. However, a decline in Q4 indicates industry pain points — most products lack proprietary content ecosystems or vertical scene services, falling into homogenized competition traps and struggling to develop differentiated competitiveness.

Figure: 2025 China consumer AR/AI market brand sales ranking, Source: CINNO Research

2. Overall AI/AR brand landscape: Thunderbird dominates with absolute advantage, Xiaomi second

Thunderbird: In 2025, held the top spot with 32% market share, with sales soaring 125% YoY. Its core advantage lies in multi-product line layout combining AI and AR, and solid product capabilities. The Thunderbird Air series has maintained high growth over the past four years, especially with the new Air 4/Pro released in 2025, which achieved significant growth through optical and audio upgrades; the colorful waveguide glasses X3 Pro secured a high-end market position, ranking first in sales above 5,000 yuan. In 2026, Thunderbird will continue its multi-product line strategy, focusing on improving basic experience and upgrading features such as reducing weight, extending battery life, and exploring AI large model functions. During the 2026 CES, Thunderbird launched the X3 Pro Project eSIM smart glasses, demonstrating boundless connectivity scenarios.

Xiaomi: With a 15% share, ranked second. Its first AI smart glasses sold 105,000 units, and thanks to brand influence, it topped sales charts for several months in Q2 and Q3.

XREAL: Focused on split-type AR headsets, with a 12% market share, ranked third. Its flagship XREAL ONE Pro/ONE, with high-resolution displays and low-latency interaction, has built a reputation among professional users, forming a differentiated competitive edge. In 2026, it plans to release two new models focusing on lightweight design and multimodal interaction upgrades.

Rokid: Became a highlight in the second half of 2025. After over a year of preparation, Rokid Glasses topped the AR all-in-one glasses category, demonstrating strong market competitiveness. In split-type headsets, although early in layout, sales remained stable but did not match the impressive performance of all-in-one glasses. In ecosystem expansion, Rokid’s AI glasses developed in collaboration with Bairong ranked among the top three in sales in November and December last year. Although not included in Rokid’s official sales, this was achieved through “brand co-branding + channel sharing” to penetrate the mass market and enhance brand influence.

3. Future trends: scene expansion becomes key, with over 65% YoY growth expected in 2026

The core value of AI/AR glasses lies in the “all-day wear + visual/auditory perception” technological foundation, enabling “data accumulation + decision support” for deep service value. The market needs breakthroughs in lightweight technology (full-color Micro LED displays), integration of AI large models, and cross-platform content ecosystems to upgrade from “single product competition” to “ecosystem competition.” This will promote a virtuous cycle of “consumer revival — scene expansion — ecosystem improvement.” According to CINNO Research, the domestic consumer market sales are forecasted to grow by over 65% in 2026.