Bitunix Analyst: Escalation of Middle East Conflict, BTC Faces "Digital Gold" Stress Test

MarsBitNews · 2026-03-02T07:44:36+00:00

On March 2nd, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil tanker transportation, and potentially causing oil prices to rise. The US PPI exceeded expectations, increasing inflationary pressures. In the crypto market, BTC is experiencing sideways fluctuations within a range, and attention should be paid to how safe-haven demand affects it. The key is whether it can be redefined as "digital gold."

MarsBitNews

2026-03-02 07:44:36

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Crypto News: On March 2nd, the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, entering the third day of conflict. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, potentially disrupting Red Sea shipping, which has substantially slowed oil tanker transportation. The U.S. has not yet discussed releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), and the market interprets this as Washington believing oil prices remain within controllable ranges. Several investment banks have modeled scenarios: if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, Brent crude could rise above $100; if the conflict quickly de-escalates, risk premiums may temporarily retreat.

On the macro level, a “combination of inflation and geopolitical risks” is evident. In January, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, with core annual growth at 3.4%, indicating persistent upstream price pressures that limit the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates. If oil prices continue to rise, it could cause a secondary disturbance to inflation expectations and interest rate paths. Short-term capital flows are shifting into gold and the U.S. dollar, with increased volatility in U.S. Treasuries, and risk assets face re-pricing.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) faces a high-density short position zone between $67,800 and $69,500, while support accumulates between $64,000 and $65,000. Currently, the price hovers around $66,000, indicating range-bound liquidity. If the conflict escalates and boosts safe-haven demand, whether BTC can break through the upper liquidation zone and extend its trend will determine if the market redefines it as “digital gold.” Conversely, if it falls back and tests support at $64,000 again, it remains a high-volatility risk asset.

Overall, this is not just a geopolitical event trade but a stress test of BTC’s narrative positioning. The key is not short-term price movements but whether, during rising risks, funds choose to incorporate BTC into their core safe-haven allocations.

BTC-2,61%

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