3.2 US-Iran conflict, resource stocks dominate the scene

2026-03-02 18:58:56

Abstract generation in progress

Good evening, everyone! [Taogu Ba]

The market has 4,000 stocks down, 1,000 stocks up. Resource stocks surged significantly, with the three major oil giants hitting the daily limit, driving the index higher, closing with a positive middle day.

Regarding market structure, let’s divide it into three main parts:

Resource trends, technology trends, and scattered speculative directions.

As I mentioned last week, “the main theme is the spiral upward of resources and technology.”

Today’s big surge in resources suggests we should consider…

Let’s discuss a few directions:

The strongest today is oil and gas. The sector’s intraday trend roughly looks like this.

Opened too high, profit-taking occurred. The extent of profit-taking depends on how much capital is lurking, which can also be called the expectation gap. Whether it can V-shape recover depends on predictions, such as Zhongman Petroleum. When it hit the limit down, will it rebound? If it rebounds, will it hit the limit again? These are based on event impacts, sustainability, and whether the sector will V-shape recover later.

For me, I prefer intraday main themes with low open and high walk, with a slight pullback around 10 o’clock, then popular stocks hitting the limit and rebounding, which feels more comfortable.

Gold and precious metals were weak in the morning but strengthened in the afternoon. When choosing stocks, ETFs and LOFs are better options.
Small metals pulled back in the afternoon, which isn’t ideal, especially for outside positions. If they don’t rise in the afternoon, they can serve as a left-side range.
Technology trends, with Changlong Fei as the main leader. As previously mentioned, the probability of Changlong Fei A-shares going down is low.

Looking back at the first day after the Spring Festival, the current path mainly remains the same: technology trend + small metals.

Changlong Fei not going down means it will oscillate. Capital is likely to rotate within sectors or between sectors, such as Tefa, Tongding, and Fuhuo, which all perform well. Other sectors like MLCC Fenghua High-tech and electronic fabrics Feli Hua also show signs of activity.

Other directions include military industry, aerospace, diamonds, etc. There may be some upward movement, but a pullback is inevitable. Don’t get carried away with gains, such as hitting the limit. Before hitting the limit, check which sector the stock belongs to—is it the most popular in that sector? Is it the first to hit the limit? Rotation markets require higher standards for picking stocks, which can help avoid stocks like China Satellite or Changfei Fiber today.

Let’s pick a few popular stocks for comments:

Jinzhengda: Shows upward movement. Many funds were probably caught off guard. Today is one of the big short-term pitfalls. A straight-up move is generally not a big problem for a bull. The main issue is opening too high and moving up too fast with insufficient volume, leading to sharp profit-taking. If the stock can hold for a few minutes after hitting the limit or open with a couple of moves, the weak-to-strong transition could happen. As I said before, rotation markets require higher standards. Usually, a big down day is critical for the next day. Whether the weak-to-strong transition succeeds depends on several key points I’ve discussed before. Here’s a recap.

Hua Sheng Tiancheng, Aerospace Development: One is domestic computing power, the other commercial aerospace. These are two notable speculative directions, and they are among the core stocks. The upward trend is solid. The aerospace engine wave pattern is emerging, and today’s performance was excellent. Relative resilience in the sector is a plus. Think about where funds might flow tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday after resource stocks exit. Outside hardware trends, probably only commercial aerospace remains. The sector’s K-line is near previous highs, facing some resistance. A two-day consolidation is reasonable, and a subsequent strong rally would be a confirmation point I look forward to.

Zhangyuan Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten: Whether military or tech, small metals and rare earths are essential. With Middle East turmoil and global instability, I feel fortunate to live in a peaceful country. We need to unite. The importance of resources is increasing step by step. Among small metals, tungsten is currently the strongest segment. The sector’s state today is average, with some disagreement but not enough to be decisive. Capital involvement is deep, logic is solid, and disagreement may not end immediately.

Okay, that’s all for today.

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Thanks to everyone for your support!

This article is for personal review only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; please proceed cautiously.

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