Most Americans are oblivious to the fact their Social Security checks could be slashed 20% in as soon as 6 years

By Jessica Hall

 Would an education campaign help workers or cause panic? 

 Social Security faces insolvency by 2032 or 2033, which would result in a 20% cut to benefits. 

 When it comes to the shaky future of Social Security, is knowledge power? Or is too much information dangerous? 

 Without action from Congress, Social Security is expected to be insolvent in as soon as six years - yet the vast majority of Americans don't understand what that means. 

 A recent Wharton Pension Research Council paper called for a public-awareness effort to inform Americans about the pending insolvency of Social Security and educate them on how a cut would impact their finances in their older years. It raised the question of whether a such a campaign would help explain the danger of congressional inaction, or whether people would be so alarmed they would rush to claim benefits - causing greater insolvency and instability to the beleaguered program. 

 The reality is this: Social Security, which has roughly 69 million beneficiaries, is not going bankrupt. But unless Congress acts to shore up the system, it faces an automatic 20% cut to benefits starting in roughly six years. The cut would be consequential - Social Security is a major source of income for people over age 65 - and equal to an $18,100 annual benefit reduction for a couple retiring at the start of 2033, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 

 In the Wharton research, only one-fifth of respondents knew about the projected cut in future benefits, with Black and Hispanic individuals less likely to be aware. Meanwhile, an AARP survey found that almost 2 in 3 adults (64%) don't understand the impact of the Social Security trust fund running short of money. 

 An educational campaign wouldn't cause panic, said Olivia Mitchell, professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and executive director of the Pension Research Council. Instead, her research found that when informed of potential reductions, most current and future beneficiaries indicated they would reduce spending, delay retirement, or claim benefits later. Mitchell said she believed a campaign would be a catalyst to get people to save more and plan better for retirement. 

 "A responsible public campaign should be accurate, non-alarmist, and behaviorally informed," said Mitchell, who was a co-author of the paper. "A carefully designed campaign is unlikely to trigger a widespread rush to claim unless framed in catastrophic terms." 

 Any campaign should be paired with planning tools, such as retirement income calculators and guidance on claiming trade-offs. "It should be framed to help people make informed decisions rather than instilling a crisis mentality," Mitchell said. 

 Not everyone agrees. 

 Nancy Altman, president of advocacy group Social Security Works, said the idea of a public campaign to warn about benefit cuts and teaching people how to plan accordingly would be "a disastrous message." 

 "The 23% cut will not happen, since it would cause mass outrage. Who would vote to reelect a member of Congress who stood by and let benefits get slashed by 23%?" Altman said. 

 The Social Security Administration did not immediately respond to requests for comment about a public education campaign. 

 Since the Social Security Act was signed into law in 1935, the government has never missed a payment. Social Security paid about $1.6 trillion in benefits to its nearly 69 million beneficiaries in 2025. People can start taking Social Security benefits as early as age 62, but they get a lower benefit amount for their lifetime. Full benefits aren't paid until age 67 for those born in 1960 or later and max out at age 70. 

 The last major overhaul to Social Security was made at the 11th hour in 1983 when Congress introduced a series of changes to shore up the finances of the program, including gradually raising the full retirement age. 

 Read: The man who fixed Social Security when it went broke in the '80s has some advice for today's politicians 

 If a public campaign were to be launched - it would have to be done carefully and strategically to avoid cramming too much information into the message while still informing the public. It would also need to have a clear call to action in order to get the public to do something - such as call their senator to ensure Social Security survives intact - or change their minds about Social Security's future, according to Beth Egan, associate professor of advertising at Syracuse University's S.I. Newhouse School of Communications. 

 Successful public service messages such as the "Friends Don't Let Friends Drive Drunk" campaign  launched in 1983 by the Ad Council and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to prevent impaired-driving fatalities, had a clear message, an easy to understand call for change and credibility, Egan said. 

 If a Social Security campaign were launched, it would require distilling the message to a simple call to action, but the audience may be complicated, Egan said. Would they be current retirees who are afraid of looming benefit cuts, near-retirees who are trying to plan around cuts or early-career workers who are thinking about their long-term financial health? 

 "They're all very different messages and getting them told clearly could be a challenge," Egan said, and the source of the message would also be complicated because the country is so fractured politically. 

 "What we do know about the country today is that people may be challenged to believe it's truthful. It could be seen by some as a fear-mongering message. Like it or not, it may come across as a political message," Egan said. 

 Insolvency looms 

 Social Security's insolvency date is a moving target, but whether you're looking at reports from the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, the Congressional Budget Office, or Social Security's chief actuary herself, estimates right now are in the range of 2032 or 2033. 

 "The primary danger lies in misinterpretation, particularly equating 'insolvency' with 'no benefits,' which underscores the importance of structured, accurate education rather than silence," Mitchell said. 

 The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older adults, agreed with the Wharton report, and said more public education is urgently needed about Social Security's projected financing shortfall 

 "Providing accurate information is not about causing panic - it's about helping people plan responsibly. Better-informed workers and retirees could make thoughtful adjustments, such as reevaluating retirement timing or claiming decisions," said Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League. 

 The 11th hour 

 Congress is not likely to address the issue of insolvency until it has to. Social Security is seen as the "third rail" of politics, meaning it could be politically lethal to touch. 

 U.S. Rep. John Larson, a Democrat from Connecticut, has been trying to fix Social Security's shortfall since at least 2015, when he first introduced the Social Security 2100 Act. President Trump has said he will protect Social Security. The next Senators elected this fall will face insolvency during their six-year tenures. Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano said last year that there's "plenty of time" to find a solution to Social Security's problems. 

 Altman of Social Security Works expects Congress will act to avoid the automatic cut, either by bringing in more revenue, by phasing in more gradual cuts, or some combination of the two. Only the very wealthy have the resources to withstand even a small cut to their earned Social Security benefits, she said. 

 "For nearly all Americans, the fear alone could - and anecdotally does - lead to bad decisions like people panicking and claiming Social Security earlier than necessary, locking them into lower benefits for life," Altman said. 

 -Jessica Hall 

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03-02-26 1306ET

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