The clouds are light and the breeze is gentle near noon, passing by the front river with flowers and willows.

History always repeats itself surprisingly. Four years ago, Russia suddenly launched a war against Ukraine, also at the end of February. That year, our country’s TWO conference was held on March 4th, [Taogu Bar].

Looking back at the market trend at that time, on February 24th, Russia and Ukraine officially started fighting. Corresponding to the Shanghai Composite Index, the market maintained a stable fluctuation between 3,300 and 3,451 during the two sessions. On the day the war broke out, the index briefly dropped to 3,400 points, then over the next seven trading days, it stubbornly held above 3,000 points. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified, external markets also declined, with the Myanmar A continuing to fall, breaking below 3,000… then below 2,900… On April 27th, the Shanghai Index stabilized at 2,863.65, then rebounded to 3,424.84 in early July.

On February 28th, Israel and the United States jointly launched an attack on Iran. The first wave of strikes near the office of Khamenei was accompanied by explosions. At that time, Khamenei was holding a meeting with senior aides.

This morning, Iranian state media confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated. He died during the attack on his office. As the victor of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and the successor to Imam Khomeini. After Khomeini’s death, through constitutional amendments and a national referendum, Khamenei became the second Supreme Leader.

One of the key features of Khamenei’s foreign policy is expanding Iran’s influence in the Middle East by supporting non-state armed proxies, known as the “Export of Revolution” strategy.

Under his leadership, Iran supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and established close ties with Iraqi Shia militias, the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). These relationships played important roles in regional conflicts, making Tehran a significant strategic power in the Middle East.

The logic behind Iran’s export of revolution is to weaken opponents (Israel and Saudi Arabia) and strengthen its own strategic depth. These proxy organizations have achieved tactical results on various battlegrounds, but also touched on Jewish interests. Due to long-term international sanctions, economic structural flaws, and mismanagement of national policies, Iran’s people face rising living costs, leading to hardship and social discontent.

Long-term economic stagnation is another harsh reality under Khamenei’s rule—since 1979, Iran’s economic growth has remained well below pre-revolution levels. Ongoing nuclear programs and support for regional proxies have led to international isolation and sanctions, with high unemployment and declining public happiness.

In this context, Khamenei and conservative forces have chosen repression and social control as responses. This strategy temporarily stabilized the regime but also deepened social divisions and increased public dissatisfaction.

Fortresses are always breached from within. Previously, Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was targeted and eliminated by insiders. The assassination of some nuclear facility engineers also indicates internal conflicts, shaking the regime’s stability.

In the future, Iran will face major decisions under enormous pressure from military attacks, decisions that will determine the country’s fate for decades.

Returning to the Myanmar A market, next week… military funding is unavoidable; it all depends on the Yulin Army’s actions.

As for the short-term-focused Taogu Bar, it should not cause any harm. The veteran traders are all in when prices rise, and vanish when prices fall—some go from full positions to zero in a second, others go from zero to full in a second.

Actually… since the beginning of the year, I’ve set three main directions for the first half of the year—neither celebrating gains nor mourning losses. These three directions are still held in inventory, waiting, and have become the main lines in the eyes of short-term traders.

Short-term trading. When selecting stocks, I’ve been hesitant. The stocks I like have already surged significantly. The sectors and stocks that haven’t moved remain stagnant. It’s a good opportunity to let the external transmission lead the domestic decline, bringing stock prices back to a personally acceptable range.

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I post on Taogu Bar purely for entertainment. It does not constitute investment advice. Since it’s a stock forum, we should talk about stocks—can’t just discuss pig postpartum care and entropy laws. If you talk too much about stocks, you’ll be labeled as “pump and dump,” especially by newcomers with no independent judgment. Be cautious and, if possible, stay away!

As a professional investor, I only share my views on certain stocks in my posts. Unskilled investors, please do not use your hard-earned money to copy my trades. Do not use your blood and sweat to copy trades here. Thank you all. Wishing everyone good luck in the stock market.