CITIC Securities: The situation in Iran is still changing rapidly, and it is expected to be difficult to predict and interpret based on the final scenario all at once.

On February 28th local time, the situation in Iran escalated into military conflict. As of 10:00 AM Beijing time on March 1st, the situation in Iran continues to change rapidly. CITIC Securities predicts that it is difficult to estimate and interpret based on a single final scenario; instead, it is more likely to fluctuate with key signals. CITIC Securities believes that the emergence of potential changes in three critical signals—U.S. military movements, changes in Iran’s political situation, and the scope of conflict spillover—will determine whether the global market impact will resemble an amplified version of the “Twelve Days War” in June 2025 or escalate into a more extreme scenario. To provide a reference for potential market impacts, CITIC Securities reviewed the market effects of eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970 and summarized the following patterns: safe-haven assets like gold outperform the dollar, oil prices remain driven by supply and demand in the long term, U.S. stock performance is directly related to the level of U.S. military intervention and the course of the conflict, and there is no significant impact on Chinese assets. (People’s Financial News)