March 3 Market Overview: Day Three of the US-Iran War, Crypto Market Makes a Desperate Comeback

Panic often presents the best buying opportunity.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: From a 600-point plunge to a rebound, a historic V-shaped reversal

On Monday, Wall Street staged a textbook “war panic - dead cat bounce” scenario.

Open with a sharp decline: Dow down 600 points (-1.2%), S&P 500 down 1.2%, Nasdaq down 1.6%. Investors hurriedly fled risk assets, pouring into gold, the dollar, and Treasuries for safety.

But by the close, a miracle happened—

S&P 500 edged up 0.04% to 6,882, Nasdaq rose 0.36% to 22,749, and the Dow only fell 0.15% (-73 points) to 48,905.

The market flipped from “extreme panic” to “calm buying” in just 6 hours.

Who was behind this V-shaped reversal?

1. Nvidia and Microsoft lead the rally: Nvidia surged 3%, Microsoft up 1.5%—investors flooded into cash-rich, strong-balance-sheet tech giants, betting they can withstand the war shocks.
2. Defensive and energy sectors support the rally: Northrop Grumman soared 6%, Lockheed Martin up 3%, drone manufacturer AeroVironment jumped over 10%. ExxonMobil rose 1.1%, Chevron up 4%.
3. “Buy the war panic” historical pattern: Wells Fargo data shows the S&P 500 tends to turn positive within two weeks after major geopolitical conflicts, with an average 1% gain after three months.
4. Oil prices retreat from 12% to 6-8%: Brent crude spiked 12 intraday but closed at +6% to $77.74/barrel; WTI crude rose 6.3% to $71.23/barrel. The narrowing of oil price gains eased inflation concerns.

KKM Financial CEO Jeff Kilburg predicted on social media Sunday night: “Futures markets overreacted to the Iran conflict; when the S&P 500 approaches its 2026 lows, it’s a buying opportunity. We’re still in a bull market despite escalating geopolitical tensions.”

His prediction was confirmed by Monday’s close.

Looking at individual stocks, airlines plunged, defensive stocks soared.

Losers: Airlines and travel stocks. United Airlines down 2.9%, Delta down 2.2%, American Airlines down 4.2%, Air France down 9.4%, Lufthansa down 5.2%.

Middle East conflict caused a sharp slowdown in business travel and international routes in Dubai and other major cities, with airlines facing soaring jet fuel costs and a sudden drop in passenger traffic.

Winners: Defensive and energy stocks. Northrop Grumman +6%, Lockheed Martin +3%, AeroVironment +10%, Chevron +4%, ConocoPhillips +5%, tanker stocks Frontline +5%.

Palantir surged over 4% to $143.30. As a core supplier of military intelligence and AI-driven warfare, geopolitical tensions directly propelled its stock price.

Crypto Market: Bitcoin surges past $68,000, geopolitical panic signals a buy

On Monday, the crypto market staged an astonishing dead cat bounce.

After touching $68,000 on Sunday, Bitcoin briefly retreated on Monday but quickly recovered, rising 4.92% in 24 hours to settle around $66,983.

Ethereum performed even stronger, jumping nearly 4% back above $2,000, erasing weekend war panic declines.

Solana soared nearly 6%, while major coins like Cardano and BNB gained 3-5%.

Total crypto market cap increased 2.73% in 24 hours, returning to $2.3 trillion—a key signal: investors are viewing cryptocurrencies as “alternative safe-haven assets” rather than just risk assets.

Why is this conflict actually bullish for Bitcoin?

This rebound defies traditional thinking. Historically, geopolitical crises usually caused Bitcoin to plummet as investors sold all risk assets for cash and gold.

But March 3 was different. Bitcoin nearly moved in sync with gold, hinting at a structural shift: Bitcoin is evolving from a “pure risk asset” to “digital gold.”

Macro economist Henrik Zeberg wrote in March outlook: “The main scenario for Bitcoin is a rebound to $110,000–$120,000 driven by ‘risk appetite frenzy,’ ETF capital inflows, and ongoing institutional adoption. A secondary scenario (25% probability) is if the cycle prolongs, Bitcoin could climb to $140,000–$150,000.”

Zeberg’s Ethereum forecast is similarly aggressive: ETH/BTC ratio will move toward 10%, pushing Ethereum’s price to between $10,000 and $12,000.

CoinCodex predicts: if current momentum continues, Bitcoin could reach $73,431 by March 6, an 8.38% increase.

Technical analyst Michael Van De Poppe emphasizes: Bitcoin must hold the $65,000 support. If it does, breaking above $70,000 is only a matter of time.

Currently, the crypto fear and greed index is at 14 (extreme fear), which is often the best buying opportunity.

Historical data shows that whenever the fear index hits “extreme fear,” strong rebounds tend to follow in the coming weeks.

Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, yet prices are rebounding strongly. This is typical of “smart money” accumulating during panic.

Gold and Silver: Break $5,400, hit record highs

On Monday, gold prices went completely wild.

Spot gold surged 2.6%, breaking through $5,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $5,408, setting a new all-time high. Futures gold also soared above $5,400, reflecting market frenzy for safe assets.

As of March 3 morning, gold stabilized at $5,338 per ounce, more than doubling from $2,624 a year ago, with over 100% increase.

This is no ordinary safe-haven rebound:

1. Central banks continue gold buying: In 2025, global central banks set a record for gold purchases, even as prices hit new highs. The World Gold Council forecasts central bank gold buying in 2026 to remain high at 773–1,117 tons.
2. Weakening dollar and “de-dollarization”: Although the dollar index briefly strengthened due to safe-haven demand, the long-term trend is weakening. Central banks worldwide are diversifying reserves, with gold as a top choice.
3. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz sparks energy crisis fears: 20% of global oil passes through the Strait; its closure could push oil prices above $100/barrel, further boosting inflation expectations and benefiting gold.
4. Geopolitical risk premium: The death of Iran’s top leader, Strait closure, and increased production by Saudi Arabia and Russia—these factors combined have pushed gold’s “war premium” to historic highs.

Silver also surged, hitting $95 per ounce, though it later retreated to around $94, still maintaining strong gains.

Analysts forecast: If geopolitical tensions persist, gold could break $6,000 per ounce in late 2026. UBS, Bloomberg, and others have raised target prices.

Today’s summary: War enters its third day, and markets have learned “counterintuitive thinking”

On March 3, the Iran-U.S. conflict entered its third day, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices soaring, Iran’s top leader dead, and the world in “epic fury” mode.

But the market’s reaction was unexpected: Bitcoin surged 5% past $68,000, gold hit a record high above $5,400, and US stocks recovered from a 600-point plunge to close higher.

This is a victory of “counterintuitive thinking”:

• Stock investors: Buy into war panic, betting on short-term conflict resolution
• Crypto investors: View geopolitical crisis as a catalyst for “de-dollarization”
• Gold investors: Frenziedly chase safe assets, pushing gold prices to record highs

Legendary investor Steve Eisman told CNBC on Monday: “I wouldn’t change any trade because of this conflict. Long-term, it’s very, very positive.”

But warning signs remain:

1. If oil prices break $100/barrel, inflation could spiral out of control
2. If the conflict lasts more than “a few weeks,” market expectations could be shattered
3. The Fed may be forced to keep high interest rates long-term, suppressing risk asset valuations

The market’s resilience is astonishing, but it’s based on the assumption of a “quick resolution.”

If the war drags on, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed long-term, or if oil prices truly surpass $100, today’s V-shaped reversal might just be a calm before a bigger storm.

But at least today, the market proved one thing: Panic often creates the best buying opportunities.