Bitcoin at risk of downward acceleration if it doesn't close above $68.3K: what experts say

Market analysts keep a close eye on Bitcoin as the week comes to an end. The main question revolves around how the price will close near $68,300: a level that could determine whether the downward acceleration poses a real risk or remains just a theoretical scenario. With BTC currently around $68.95K, the margin for movement is already very tight, and fears of a possible rapid decline continue to dominate conversations among professional traders.

The 200-week exponential moving average has become a crucial element in contemporary Bitcoin technical analysis. After the price was rejected from the 200-week trendline during the opening of financial markets, analysts have begun outlining scenarios that painfully resemble previous crypto bear cycles.

When the 200-week EMA becomes a critical resistance

Trader Rekt Capital drew illuminating parallels between the current situation and past market price behaviors. According to his analysis, a weekly close below the 200-week EMA — around $68,300 — followed by a retest of the line as new resistance, could set the stage for a historic rapid decline.

“The logic is simple but powerful,” the analyst emphasized. “Bitcoin’s history shows that when the price falls below this level and then retests it from below, it often triggers a more pronounced bearish move over time.” The most recent parallel is the 2022 bear market, when similar dynamics preceded further declines.

The same 200-week simple moving average forms a sort of “buffer zone” together with the EMA. So far, the price has avoided significantly breaking this double protection, but pressure remains palpable. Thursday’s Wall Street open tested this critical resistance, with BTC hovering around $67,000 for the second consecutive day.

Mayer Multiple signals shouting “buy opportunity”

Not all analysts share the pessimistic outlook. William Clemente, head of strategy at Styx, identified this pressure environment as a rare opportunity. The Mayer Multiple — a metric measuring the distance of the price from the 200-day moving average — has reached extraordinarily low levels.

“Historically, only 5.3% of days have seen the Mayer Multiple drop to such lows,” highlights the X account dedicated to economist Frank Fetter. “Yes, it could go even lower, but the ways to say Bitcoin isn’t attractive here are running out.” This statement is not accidental: a Mayer Multiple below 0.8 traditionally signals good long-term return prospects.

Charles Edwards, founder of the quantitative fund Capriole Investments, agreed on the rarity of this phenomenon. “It rarely drops to 0.6x. Can the price go even lower?” he rhetorically asked. “Yes, but historically, this has been one of the best buy signals in Bitcoin’s history.”

What history teaches about rapid declines

The last comparable episode occurred during the 2022 bear market, when the Mayer Multiple reached similar levels. Today, the convergence of two key indicators — the 200-week EMA and the 200-week SMA — creates a “support cloud” of psychological support that the market continues to respect, albeit precariously.

The challenge for bulls remains reclaiming $69,000, the all-time high from 2021. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $68,300 at weekly close, the risk of a sharp decline would increase significantly, replicating historical patterns that preceded more pronounced downward moves.

However, the fact that the Mayer Multiple is in long-term accumulation territory — as supported by multiple analysts — suggests that caution should balance the pessimism. The next weekly close could determine whether the downward acceleration remains a possibility or turns into a technical confirmation of a more defensive phase for Bitcoin.