Under the cloud of war, are your $BTC and $ETH safe havens or sitting ducks? Goldman Sachs' urgent report reveals the harsh truth.

Recently, explosions in the Middle East caused oil prices and the US dollar index to jump together. Many people’s first reaction was that risk aversion had returned, and funds should flow into the dollar. However, market analysis suggests that this dollar strength may not be driven by safe-haven demand but is instead a passive result of “having no other choice.”

When oil prices surge due to conflict, the hardest-hit are economies that rely heavily on energy imports. Their currencies are the first to come under pressure. Japan imports about one-third of its energy through the Strait of Hormuz, so the yen against the dollar fell over 1% in a day. The euro also dropped 1%, hitting a one-month low. Meanwhile, the US, as a net energy exporter, became a relatively less bad destination for funds amid panic. The dollar’s strength is essentially a passive beneficiary of the global energy imbalance.

This logic can reinforce itself. Barclays’ rule of thumb shows that every $10 increase in oil prices typically leads to a 0.5% to 1.0% appreciation of the dollar. If oil prices continue to rise, pushing the dollar higher, it will further increase energy import costs for overseas economies, weakening their currencies and creating a cycle of “oil prices rise → dollar strengthens → overseas economies worsen → dollar strengthens further.” Some analysts believe this scenario is not in anyone’s best interest.

Faced with these complex geopolitical risks, Goldman Sachs recently recommended a defensive portfolio: increasing holdings of the dollar, yen, and gold. But the rationale for each differs.

The dollar is a short-term beneficiary, supported by its energy status and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates due to oil-driven inflation. In the short term, it is expected to remain strong. However, Goldman Sachs predicts this strength may not last until the end of the year, with a 12-month target for EUR/USD at 1.25, implying the dollar will weaken by then.

The yen’s situation is more complicated. Due to energy dependence, it will face pressure early in the conflict. Goldman Sachs forecasts USD/JPY at 160 in three months, indicating further yen weakness. Historical data shows that in six geopolitical events, the yen’s average return was -1%. But Goldman Sachs believes that once the conflict’s impact diminishes, the yen has room to recover, with a 12-month target of 155.

Among this trio, gold’s defensive value is considered the most certain. Goldman Sachs has an overweight rating on gold. Currently, spot gold is around $5,254 per ounce, with a 12-month target of $5,565, implying about 5.9% upside. In similar geopolitical events, gold has averaged a 3% return with a 67% success rate, making it the most stable among safe-haven assets.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that these three assets should be allocated together to achieve risk diversification. At the same time, investors should be cautious of the opportunity cost of over-concentrating in a single safe-haven asset. If geopolitical tensions ease or oil prices fall, positions should be adjusted promptly.

What does this macro landscape mean for the crypto market? As traditional safe-haven assets’ logic diverges due to energy dynamics, digital assets like $BTC and $ETH face a more complex funding environment. The short-term strength of the dollar may suppress dollar-denominated risk assets, while the strengthening of gold’s safe-haven appeal continually tests the narrative of cryptocurrencies as “digital gold.” Are you ready with your positions?

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