3.3 You can avoid the first, but you cannot avoid the fifteenth.

**Good evening everyone! [Taogu Ba]
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Brothers, how are you all doing?
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Today was another day of xx, with extreme phenomena in the market, showing severe polarization—big gains and big losses. The rise was driven by Middle East tensions fueling oil and natural gas, and under the same news influence, many other stocks were also caught in the chaos, especially small metals, commercial aerospace, and technology, which were the most brutal.**

Let’s discuss a few points:
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1: Index, expected to recover tomorrow. The index is also easy to judge—based on news and technical analysis, it’s just up or down. When it’s overbought, it tends to fall; when oversold, it tends to rise. The range-bound movement should be treated as such, and the main upward trend as such.
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Here, two large downward lines indicate panic release. The short-term view is a recovery—whether it’s a direct rebound or a low-open continuation followed by recovery depends on tonight’s US market status and Middle East situation. If good, the former; if bad, the latter. If the recovery seems too hasty, consider taking some profits first. If the continuation diverges, you can keep holding.
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2: Commercial aerospace, review what was discussed a few days ago. If you want to act here, focus on strong stocks on the right side of the trend. The best scenario is the sector’s K-line oscillating on the 5-day moving average for two days, then breaking out strongly. That would be ideal. In reality, it did break out, but downward.
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**The reason for favoring the right side is because it’s near the previous high—an important position for choosing direction. When the odds are evenly split up and down, going down results in pure loss, while going up and following means earning less.
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Some core stocks in the sector show signs of breaking support, such as Xinwei and Zhenlei.

Two points to watch moving forward:
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① The breakout point of the previous high at 2708, short-term, is probably difficult to re-enter.
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② Core stocks that haven’t broken support can be traded for a swing, like Aerospace Development and Western Materials.**
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3: Oil and gas: mainly driven by news stimuli. Morning session saw Water Development surpass expectations, leading natural gas to rise, while yesterday was weak. Today, it was strong. If you want to trade oil and gas today, natural gas is better than oil due to the contrast.
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As for the lagging oil and gas stocks, they are highly news-dependent. If news remains dull, tomorrow’s premiums will be limited. Whether to participate depends on whether you can judge how the Middle East situation will change tonight. Few people have this skill, so the market will be mixed, and participation may not be very meaningful. Tomorrow will be a classic divergence day—early entries are better for profit-taking, and caution is advised.
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After the oil and gas retreat, who can absorb this part of the funds?**

**After some research, it’s still AI computing power.
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① Domestic side, pay attention to Huawei Ascend. It feels resilient despite declines, and its position isn’t high, which makes sense logically. Key stocks: Huasheng Tiancai, Tuowei Information.

② AI hardware side, veteran stocks like Yizhongtian mainly oscillate. This year, the hardware sector’s profit effects are likely to shift continuously within new segments like touch sensors, switching every so often—recently, fiber optics. Keep an eye on upstream CPO components and second-tier manufacturers.

In the bottom left corner of the article, there are 7 fuel coupons. Let’s work together to collect them—just seven needed.
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Thanks for the support, brothers!
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This article is only a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; please proceed cautiously.