[Red Envelope] 3.3 Extreme Divergence Still Profitable! Today, Little Meat is Out, Position Management Determines Win or Lose! How to Face Tomorrow?

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Today’s Operations:

Trading Account:

All cash

Trend Account:

Cleared Positions: Huasheng Tiancheng (sold after spike, red 6+ points)

Reduced Positions: Yuyin Technology 2/3 (sold after spike, red 6+ points)

Reduced Positions: Jinan Guoji 2/3 (sold after spike, red 11 points)

Holdings:

Yuyin Technology (core position, stable logic)

Jinan International (core position, PCB rebound logic)

Shenzhen Information (Quantum Technology, green 9)

Zhongsheng Medicine (medical concept, looking for rebound mid-term, green 10)

Thoughts on Opening Auction:

1. Early morning thoughts: Oil & Gas surged yesterday, driving industry chain fermentation. Today should logically see some divergence, then strengthening of leading stocks. In fact, today still had a climax, with only a brief divergence at open, then consistent industry chain fermentation.

2. Tech sector follows yesterday’s script: divergence at open with oil & gas, then a slight rebound. During the auction, PCB and optical communications were both competing for red.

3. Computing power was generally realized today; no good low-entry opportunities found, so only selling points during the session. Wait for divergence to finish before reassessing.

4. Huaru’s auction ended with a single strong move, but today the market didn’t recognize military industry. Oil & gas funds flowed into coal and others.

5. Two sessions remain key. We should focus on low-position anomalies, act early for swings, as late entries are hard to ferment. Otherwise, it’s short-term arbitrage. Finally, risk aversion and tech are like a seesaw; only one can be the main theme each day.

At 9:15, the top three largest orders were all in oil & gas. Next, a big single in Jinniu with a one-word order. During auction, methanol fermented. After open, funds realized a wave in paint stocks, then shortly after, funds flowed back. Other sectors were impacted. Only the methanol series remained active. Later, Baili Electric’s order hit over 400 million in one word, thinking today would guide nuclear power, but risk aversion still caused shocks. Not just this sector.

Risk aversion auction was too uniform, which only accelerates decline. So, in the second half, don’t be stubborn. Avoid chasing core stocks with high recognition; when the market is too strong, it’s time to realize profits. Realization usually starts from the back ranks; front-line stocks can barely survive.

Tech sector auction feedback is positive: Longfei Guangqian Hong, Jixian, and others opened red, even Jinan Guoji, which has been stagnant, was bid up 6 points. Such openings only suggest continuation. Any slight weakness indicates funds are ready to realize profits in tech. So, before open, I warned about Jinfen; quick price caps are necessary to stay. When divergence occurs, we reduce positions step by step. If the price breaks below open and can’t hold, we exit the remaining core holdings, locking in profits. The strong momentum of Jinfen kept us firm; selling at 4-5 points was already good. I just sold when the price broke below open, at over 5 points.

Yesterday’s late session warned that Huasheng might be heavily sold. We need to manage T positions well. Today’s small and big gains from low entries in Huasheng are based on your depth of entry. After open, I also advised rolling profit-taking in Huasheng. Although my sell points weren’t perfect, selling yesterday’s low with a 6-point profit is good. Some Jinfen took profits, some didn’t. Those who didn’t might have been busy in the morning or missed my intraday updates.

After market close, I saw oil & gas rebounding at nearly 40 minutes past nine, so I reduced positions further, leaving some core holdings. The setback in risk aversion mainly hit tech sectors. The script was similar to yesterday. Unexpectedly, today’s consistency was even stronger than yesterday. I decisively took profits at high points in the morning, avoiding bigger losses later.

Market Review:

Today’s market was straightforward: oil & gas strongest, spilling over to related industries. Many related sectors benefited. The only divergence was during a brief moment. I thought tech might seize the opportunity to regain funds, but it turned out funds were mainly pulling profits higher. No other highlights. After banks supported the market, I didn’t hold much hope for the overall index. I took profits early in the morning, didn’t find good low-entry opportunities.

(One point to note: in such strong markets, only front-line stocks should be chased; avoid buying back ranks. When the market is too strong, realize profits first—starting from the back. Front-line stocks can still survive, but the back ranks are more vulnerable.)

A message to Longjia Army: (After reading, check my sub-portfolio allocations below to understand the meaning)

Recently, as long as our Longjia Army can follow the trend, pay attention to my intraday comments. Today, the account is definitely in the green. Jinan was bought early at the bottom. Huasheng was recovered yesterday. Even if not at yesterday’s cost, it’s lower now. Yuyin was bought a few days ago at a low point. Overall, aside from Shen Zhou being eaten, the account is still in the green. In such tough conditions, being profitable is impressive. (This is why I’ve been diversifying across sectors with bottom picks. Only at the end can I weaken the weak and strengthen the strong, riding the main trend to the last. When the main trend isn’t clear, we focus on hot sectors, deploying core positions in batches. As long as you buy at lows, you won’t go wrong.)

Market control and position management:

1. When the market is good, I usually hold 8 positions, with 2 in tactical trades. When the market is average, I reduce to half. When weak, I keep only 2 positions.

2. For stocks I believe have trend potential, I open around 7 positions, gradually lock profits down to 3-4 to lock in gains. For low-entry rebound stocks, I usually open 4 positions, don’t add more, and gradually take profits down to 2.

3. For arbitrage and quick trades, I open full positions. My trading account for quick trades is usually full. For beginners, I recommend starting with one position, then gradually adding as you learn. My full positions are based on my account size.

Position deployment:

1. When the main trend is clear, I buy at most 2-3 stocks in the same sector, plus 1-2 for replenishment. For example, in January, I rotated between Huasheng and Geer; in February, Huasheng, Dawi Technology, etc., avoiding over-concentration.

2. When the market is weak, I reduce to 2 stocks max, with half positions for replenishment.

3. During chaotic markets with many expected news, I diversify: for example, 2 stocks each in four sectors, leaving 2 for replenishment. This week, I operated with 2 in stability, 2 in quantum, 2 in computing power, 2 in PCB. Recent events increased risk aversion but didn’t affect my overall account, which still ended in profit.

Tomorrow’s operation ideas:

1. Observe if risk aversion can diverge tomorrow. Focus only on front-line stocks; avoid chasing back ranks. The market is too uniform, with trillions in play.

2. The Two Sessions are approaching; continue monitoring for bottom anomalies.

Specific thoughts will be posted during tomorrow’s early session.

Thanks to the Longjia Army for the support yesterday. Your encouragement is my motivation: @XunNuanGe @98Charity @MoChangYuan @YixinShouhou @CuiCan1025 @NaFuPoDuiWoShuo @SiDaoSiShiJi1

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