1. Macroeconomic Negative Factors Compound

- On March 6, cryptocurrencies collectively declined, BTC fell below $69,000, SOL also dropped sharply, and the market entered risk asset deleveraging;
- The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 meeting is highly likely to keep interest rates high, with only a 50% chance of rate cuts in June, and high interest rates suppress crypto valuations;
- The US-Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation rebounded, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates, and capital withdrew from crypto amid stagflation concerns.

2. Technical Support Under Pressure
- Key support at $78 has been repeatedly tested; breaking below could trigger liquidity panic;
- On-chain data shows that altcoin liquidity is concentrated in BTC, with insufficient funds in coins like SOL, making independent moves unlikely;
- If it falls below $78, the next strong support zones are $75-$70, and the market could enter free fall.

3. Main Capital Behavior
- High leverage contracts are concentrated; once a breakdown triggers liquidations, a spiral decline may ensue;
- Major players often use negative news to dump and shake out weak hands, testing panic sell-offs around $70, then rebounding after accumulating positions.

II. Is $70 the "Iron Bottom" or the "Abyss"?
- $78: The lifeline. A confirmed close below (4-hour close below) indicates a weakening trend, with a target of $75;
- $75: Strong support, a previous high-volume trading zone with more buy orders, easier to defend than $70;
- $70: The ultimate panic bottom. Reaching here likely indicates extreme events (such as regulatory black swans) or violent shakeouts by major players, but also presents an oversold buying opportunity.

III. Risk Control Strategies for "Fear of Dropping to 70" (Core)
1. Layered Positions, No Heavy Loading
- Keep total position under 40%, reserve 60% cash to handle extreme drops;
- Divide entries into 3 stages: 79-81 (25%) → 83-84 (15%) → 88-89 (10%), avoid all-in;
2. Move Stop-Loss Upward to Protect Principal
- Lower overall stop-loss to $77 (if it drops below $78, exit immediately without hesitation);
- Set limit stop-loss on each trade to avoid being stopped out by major players and rebounding;
3. Handling the "70 Scenario" (Operate According to Situations)
- Scenario 1: Drop to $75-$78:
This is a normal correction, do not buy the dip; wait for stabilization signals (4-hour volume rebound, RSI recovery), then try with a small 5-10% position, stop-loss at $74;
- Scenario 2: Break below $75, approaching $70:
Close all long positions, lock in profits (open short positions for hedging), control floating losses;
Near $70, observe whether 15-minute/1-hour candles show volume-driven stabilization or long lower shadows, then buy with a super-light 5% position aiming for $75-$78, quick in and out.

4. Strict Rules for Negative Periods
- Do not chase highs before March 15; do not buy above $84, only buy low below $81;
- Before the meeting (March 17-18), reduce holdings to below 20%, avoid volatility from the meeting;
- If it breaks below $78, exit decisively, do not hope for a "rebound to break even," save capital for the next opportunity.

IV. Specific Execution Plan for Tomorrow (March 8)
- Wait and see: Do not open new positions actively; wait for price to retrace to $80-$81;
- Light long positions: If it reaches $80-$81, open 10% position, stop-loss at $79, take profit at $84;
- Risk control bottom line: Total position no more than 20%, do not add leverage under any circumstances.