#加密市场小幅下跌 Falls below $68,000! Bitcoin sell-off cools down, entering the mid-term of the bear market, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed

On March 7, after experiencing a period of fluctuation and correction, Bitcoin's price temporarily stabilized, and market sentiment gradually shifted from extreme panic to rationality. At this moment, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on X platform, offering a key judgment—Bitcoin's selling pressure has significantly weakened, but the overall bottom has not yet been confirmed, and it is highly likely that we have entered the mid-stage of this bear market cycle. This judgment instantly sparked heated discussion: does the cooling of the sell-off mean it’s time to buy the dip? What exactly is the state of the mid-term bear market? Is this a phase support or a temporary rebound?
Core Interpretation: Key signals from the analyst’s statement
Axel’s assessment is primarily based on a key indicator—the NUPL–MVRV harmonic composite index. Currently, this indicator is at 0.33, while historical data shows that Bitcoin’s cycle bottoms usually occur around 0.5. These two numbers may seem abstract, but once broken down, they are quite understandable: simply put, the NUPL–MVRV harmonic composite index is a core tool for measuring market panic, selling pressure, and bottom zones. The lower the value, the more severe the market panic and the closer to the bottom; the higher the value, the more euphoric the market sentiment and the closer to the top. The current indicator at 0.33 is well above the historical bottom range of around 0.5, indicating that the market has not yet reached an extreme stage of “full-scale sell-off,” and the bottom has not been truly confirmed. However, it is worth noting that the chart shows the start of an upward trend in the bear market cycle, which also confirms the judgment of “weakened selling pressure”—the previous extreme sell-off has become more moderate, and the market is no longer dominated by panic-driven sell-offs. The bulls and bears are beginning to balance, which is the core basis for “entering the mid-term of the bear market.”
Simple Summary: The current Bitcoin market is like a temporary calm after a storm—the most intense sell-off has passed, but the sky is not yet clear, and there may still be showers, so caution is advised.
What is the current market situation?
On one hand, selling pressure is indeed weakening. From recent market performance, Bitcoin previously dipped to around $63,000, then gradually rebounded to the $67,984.94 range, without a sustained breakdown; at the same time, spot trading volume has increased, buy and sell orders are becoming more balanced, indicating that the number of investors blindly selling is decreasing, and the market is beginning to enter a consolidation phase. Additionally, recent inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and institutional funds are gradually increasing, providing some price support and further easing selling pressure.
On the other hand, signals of an unconfirmed bottom are also very clear. Besides the NUPL–MVRV indicator not reaching the historical bottom zone, there are multiple uncertainties in the current market: global macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing institutional hedging needs—all of which could trigger new volatility; meanwhile, options market data shows that market expectations for a sharp short-term rebound are low, and there is a higher alertness to further corrections, indicating that market confidence has not yet fully recovered. More critically, the core characteristic of this bear market is the paradox of “institutions being bearish but increasing holdings”—some institutions, despite judging the market to be in a bear phase, are still gradually increasing their positions. This prevents the market from experiencing the previous “surrender sell-off,” but also makes a quick reversal unlikely. Instead, the market can only gradually digest pressure through oscillation, which is a typical feature of the mid-term bear market.