Simple and Accurate Bottom-Finding Indicator: BTC 200-Week Moving Average

If you are new to the crypto world or a long-term investor, you don't need to focus too much on technical charts; the BTC 200-week moving average is an absolutely simple and reliable classic indicator.
Based on historical data, BTC has used this indicator to judge four bull and bear markets in history, with an accuracy rate of 100%.
It's no exaggeration to say that crossing the bull and bear markets, this one indicator is enough.
Since 2015, every major Bitcoin bear market bottom has occurred near the 200-week SMA or briefly dipped below before quickly recovering, then entering a new bull cycle and reaching new all-time highs.
There has never been a permanently unrecovable drop in history.
1. 2015 Bear Market:
Early 2015
200-week moving average level: approximately $200–$250
BTC lowest price: approximately $170
Testing duration: about 3 days
Subsequent performance: rose to about $20,000 by late 2017
2. 2018-2019 Bear Market:
December 2018
200-week moving average level: approximately $3,000–$3,100
BTC lowest price: approximately $3,100
Break/test duration: about 2 weeks
Subsequent performance: rose to about $14,000 in mid-2019, rebounded within about 6 months
3. 2020 COVID Flash Crash:
March 2020
200-week moving average level: approximately $5,400
BTC lowest price: approximately $3,800
Break/test duration: about 2 weeks
Subsequent performance: rose to about $64,000 by April 2021, within about 13 months
4. 2022 Bear Market:
June 2022 to 2023
200-week moving average level: approximately $22,000–$24,000
BTC lowest price: approximately $15,500
Testing duration: about 16 months
Subsequent performance: rose to about $126,000 by October 2025
Historically, Bitcoin's price has spent over 85-90% of the time above the 200-week moving average.
It only dips briefly near the bear market bottom.
A dip below the 200-week moving average may be a bottoming opportunity, but consolidation periods range from 3 days to 16 months.
As of now (April 16, 2026), the 200-week moving average is approximately $59,747, and BTC is currently around $74k, about 1.25 times above the moving average, indicating a safe buffer zone.
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Conclusion: BTC still has the potential to decline in the future.
After breaking below the 200-week moving average, it often signals a long-term bottom area.
$BTC