#山寨币强势反弹 Is it a genuine bottom or a false recovery? Multiple tokens' trends "support the pillar of the sky"
Consecutive days of gains have suddenly made the long-dormant altcoin market lively again. Some tokens have experienced continuous surges, even showing violent rallies of several times or dozens of times in a short period, giving the impression of a restart of the altcoin season. However, this is not a sign of a comprehensive revival of altcoins, but rather a localized celebration led by a few strong tokens.
The era of broad price increases is over, and strong coins are taking over the altcoin rally
Altcoins have not shown the long-anticipated broad rally script.
According to CoinGecko's tracked top 1000 tokens by market cap, over the past 7 days, the top 30 tokens by gain have averaged a 153.5% increase, significantly outperforming mainstream assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, mainly concentrated in sectors such as Meme, inscriptions, AI, and infrastructure.
But further analysis reveals that this round of altcoin rally is not evenly distributed but dominated by a very small number of assets with extreme performance.
The top 10 tokens by percentage increase all exceeded 100%, with RAVE, bnLife, and ORDI leading the pack, with gains of 1596.2%, 307.2%, and 265.4%, respectively; the other 20 tokens performed more modestly, mainly in the 40%-100% range, averaging about 65.6%. In other words, a few "top students" have pulled up the overall performance.
Trading volume data also confirms this. Although overall trading volume has rebounded, funds have not flowed evenly but concentrated in a few assets. In the past 24 hours, these tokens averaged about $140 million in trading volume, with only ORDI, BIO, and BASED accounting for nearly 70% of the total turnover, showing a strong concentration of capital.
Further breakdown shows that the assets in this rally roughly fall into two categories.
One category is projects that have just hit new highs and are in a strong trend. There are 12 projects that have set new highs within the past month, most of which have refreshed their historical price records in recent days. These tokens have good liquidity and high market attention but have accumulated a large amount of profit-taking, with current prices averaging about 29.5% below their previous highs. If new funds weaken or sentiment shifts, sharp corrections are likely to occur.
The other category is assets that are deeply oversold and are rebounding. There are 13 tokens that are more than a year away from their historical highs, with some exceeding four years, and an average maximum decline of 95.4%. Since the circulating market cap of these projects has shrunk significantly, only a small amount of capital is needed to quickly push them higher, with an average rebound of 104.4% in recent surges.
From a market cap perspective, most tokens currently have a market value between $20 million and $80 million. These mid- to low-cap projects, due to their smaller circulating supply, have significantly higher price elasticity under the same capital inflow compared to high-cap projects, making rapid price surges easier. Among the eight projects with a market cap over $75k, the average increase is about 340%, indicating that these projects had relatively low initial market caps, enabling such strong gains. However, as market caps are rapidly inflated, it will become much more difficult to achieve similar percentage increases in the future.
Limited rebound space, the altcoin era of differentiation begins
Although there are signs of recovery in prices and trading volume for some altcoins, overall market liquidity remains insufficient, and Bitcoin continues to dominate, so the rebound potential may be limited.
CoinGlass's altcoin season index shows that the current market altcoin season index is 36, indicating that the overall market has not yet formed a full altcoin season, with most tokens underperforming Bitcoin, and funds more concentrated in a few strong coins.
Meanwhile, as a sentiment indicator for the crypto market, CoinGlass's fear and greed index shows a current reading of 22, in the fear zone. This low level reflects cautious market sentiment, with the overall state being oversold or pessimistic. The fear zone has appeared about 30.68% of the time historically, a common feature during bear phases in the crypto market, also indicating that the current rebound is not yet based on emotional resonance.
More importantly, the current altcoin rally still occurs during Bitcoin's dominance phase. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin's market share in the crypto market has reached 56.8%, with Ethereum at 10.7%. Until Bitcoin's absolute market share declines significantly, most altcoins remain assets for capital rotation rather than trend leaders.
The recent rise of these altcoins may be driven by these main factors:
First, easing geopolitical risks. The easing of geopolitical tensions also provides macro support for this altcoin rebound. Recent signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran have significantly reduced market risk premiums, boosting the collective recovery of global risk assets. As a high-beta asset, the crypto market is highly sensitive to geopolitical sentiment changes. After risk aversion eases, investor risk appetite increases, and some profit-taking funds rotate from mainstream assets like Bitcoin into more elastic altcoins, amplifying the rise of certain strong performers.
Second, capital rotation for profit-taking. Bitcoin has recently continued to strengthen and approached $75k, with early investors realizing substantial gains. As Bitcoin enters a high-level consolidation phase with slowing upward momentum, some profit-taking funds begin to flow out, seeking higher returns in smaller market cap altcoins with greater growth potential.
Particularly, many established altcoins are in severely oversold zones, and once liquidity is replenished, rapid rebounds can be triggered. Coupled with the leverage effect of derivatives markets, prices could be driven even higher. However, it should be noted that such rebounds mainly depend on sentiment recovery or external catalysts rather than fundamental improvements.
Third, market makers' high control. The violent surges of a few tokens benefit from project teams or whales controlling the chips. These assets have extremely low liquidity and are easily manipulated, essentially resembling liquidity games rather than free-market pricing.
For example, RAVE has over 90% of its supply concentrated in three suspected team or internally controlled Gnosis Safe wallets, which, by inducing short positions and tightening supply, caused short squeezes and price spikes. After the sharp rise, large sell-offs and whale exits followed; SIREN was also monitored to have over 93% of tokens controlled by market manipulators, leading to intense market operations and price surges; during Meme coin bnLife's rally, its controlling cluster continued to increase holdings, once exceeding 22%.
Fourth, narrative and news-driven catalysts. Developments such as funding progress, sector rotations, and hot concepts like AI provide short-term momentum for price increases, but their sustainability and upside are limited, mainly driven by trading rather than trend fundamentals.
It should be noted that among hundreds of millions of altcoins, only a tiny fraction can truly be manipulated to rally. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently pointed out that the traditional altcoin season of broad market rallies may have ended, and future cycles will be more differentiated and non-traditional.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost also stated that approximately 47 million cryptocurrencies have been issued globally, and the large quantity has severely diluted liquidity, making altcoins increasingly fragile.
Overall, although a few strong altcoins have amplified the market effect, most assets remain in a liquidity vacuum. Investors should stay alert, fully aware of profit-taking pressure, whale manipulation risks, and the volatility caused by low liquidity.