Evening Silk Road Overall Direction

Maintain a cautious short-selling approach, relying on rebound resistance levels to position short orders, strictly control stop-losses, and gradually target downward space.
Entry Timing and Levels
Aggressive Strategy
The current price is near 77,438, close to the lower Bollinger Band, combined with multi-period capital outflows, moving average bearish alignment, and MACD death cross resonance; wait for the price to rebound to 77,650-77,750 (5-day moving average + previous platform resistance), show signs of stagnation such as upper shadow or small bearish candlestick, then go short.
Conservative Strategy
1. Rebound Resistance: When the price rebounds to test 77,877 (middle Bollinger Band / MA20), confirm inability to break through effectively and then short;
2. Breakout Short: When the price effectively breaks below and closes above 77,302 (lower Bollinger Band), then go short accordingly.
Stop-Loss Settings
1. Entry at 77,650-77,750: set stop-loss above 78,200;
2. Entry near 77,877: set stop-loss above 78,450;
3. Break below 77,302 for short: set stop-loss above 77,600.
Considering ATR value of 445.09, overall stop-loss range is controlled within 1.0%-1.5%, with reasonable risk control and a high reward-to-risk ratio.
Take-Profit Targets
1. First target: 77,000 (integer level + S1 key support);
2. Second target: 76,500-76,600 (intraday low + S3 strong support);
Expected profit per trade is 5%-8%.
Logic
Technical: Moving average bearish alignment, MACD death cross, price continuously pressured at middle and lower Bollinger Bands, clear overall bearish structure;
Fundamental: Futures and spot markets show continuous net capital outflows, lack of bullish momentum;
Short-term Market: Overbought indicators are only short-term corrections, with no capital inflow or reversal pattern, limited rebound space, and rebound resistance makes shorting the best strategy. Strictly execute stop-losses and grasp downward support zones for profit.