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#CPI Data Drops 🇺🇸 Inflation in the United States is slowing down: March consumer price index (CPI) – 2.4% 📉
In March, the consumer price index in the United States increased by only 2.4% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. This is the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, clearly indicating that inflation is slowing down📊❄️. However, the market's reaction to this news is not enthusiastic🤔.
📉 Why didn't the market react strongly?
The surprise is not big: this decline had been anticipated, just slightly weaker than predicted.
Core inflation remains stubborn: excluding volatile food and energy, core inflation is still above the 2% target 🧱
The market has "priced in" a rate cut: now they are waiting for confirmation of the Federal Reserve's actions, not just the data.
🏦 What does this mean for the Federal Reserve and interest rates?
The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, but it is still far from certain:
✅ It's good news for the "doves" (doves) — Inflation is cooling down, which means we can consider the first interest rate cut in June-July 2025 🕊️
⚠️ However, the Federal Reserve wants to see a sustainable decline, especially in core Inflation. One report does not make a trend.
➡️ Conclusion: The expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but it is more likely that 1-2 cuts will occur in 2025, rather than a large-scale easing 💡
🪙 What impact does this have on the cryptocurrency market?
🟢 Positive signals for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies:
📉 Federal Reserve's loose policy = Bond yields decline = Increased interest in risk assets ( including cryptocurrencies ).
🪙 BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies typically react with growth to such macro news, especially when these messages indicate that the dollar is becoming cheaper💵
⚠️ But growth is constrained: traders are looking for confirmation not only regarding Inflation but also regarding the Federal Reserve's own policies. Currently, it remains "hawkish" (hawkish) — cryptocurrencies are on the sidelines 🚦