🚀 JPMorgan makes bold claims again: The rise in gold prices is not over, aiming for $4050-$4150 by mid-2026!

Recently, JPMorgan analyst Weiheng Chen emphasized in a latest report that the strong momentum of gold will continue until 2026. As the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle, gold prices are expected to break through 4050-4150 USD/oz by mid-2026. This prediction is based on historical patterns: a low-interest-rate environment will significantly reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset gold, driving continuous inflows of funds into the gold market.

🔍 Core driving factors: Federal Reserve policy and market demand
The interest rate cut cycle begins, and gold arrives at the "sweet spot".
J.P. Morgan pointed out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are a key catalyst for the rise in gold prices. Historical data shows that since the beginning of the 21st century, gold prices have achieved double-digit increases within 9 months following each Federal Reserve rate cut cycle.
The current market expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates within 2025. If economic data (especially the labor market) weakens further, the rate cuts may be more aggressive. The low interest rate environment directly suppresses real yields, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset.
Investor demand has replaced central banks, becoming the new dominant force.
Previously, the rise in gold prices was mainly supported by global central banks' gold purchases (for example, the quantity of gold purchased by central banks reached a historical high in 2023), but current investor demand has become the main driving force.
Recently, there has been a significant inflow of funds into gold ETFs: In the two weeks ending September 5, nearly 72 tons (approximately $8 billion) flowed into global gold ETFs, marking the largest single-week inflow since April. The net long position in COMEX gold futures has also risen to a new high, indicating strong bullish sentiment among institutions.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Two Major Potential Challenges
Central bank gold purchases slow down
In the second quarter of 2025, the global central bank gold purchases dropped to 166.5 tons, the lowest since the second quarter of 2022. If central banks continue to reduce gold purchases due to high gold prices, it may weaken the foundation for the upward trend.
The resilience of the U.S. economy exceeds expectations.
If the U.S. economy performs strongly under the impact of tariffs, the Federal Reserve may shift to a hawkish stance and even revisit discussions on interest rate hikes, which would reverse the favorable environment for gold.
💡 Extreme scenario: Could gold prices soar to $5000?
JPMorgan presented a "tail risk" scenario in its report: if market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve intensify (such as political interference in monetary policy), it may lead to a slight shift of funds from the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market to gold.

The calculation model shows: If $28 billion shifts from U.S. Treasuries to gold each quarter (only accounting for 0.1% of the total market value of U.S. Treasuries), it could push the gold price to $5,000 per ounce in just two quarters.
📈 Investment Strategy Recommendations
JPMorgan suggests that investors may pay attention to structured gold products (such as ETFs linked to gold prices and options combinations) to capture enhanced returns from gold price fluctuations. At the same time, it should be noted:

Short-term volatility risk: Gold prices have recently broken through $3650, and the overbought technical aspect may trigger a pullback, with support levels looking at $3400-$3500.
Silver Rebound Opportunity: The current price of silver is approximately $44 per ounce, and some institutions are optimistic that it will rise to $46-50 within the year. However, fluctuations in industrial demand may lead to its performance being weaker than that of gold.
💎 Summary
JPMorgan's forecast highlights the strategic value of gold amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The shift in Federal Reserve policy, the resurgence of investor demand, and geopolitical risks together form the foundation for rising gold prices. If subsequent economic data strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, it is only a matter of time before gold prices break through 4000 dollars.

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(This article is an analysis integrated from research reports by institutions such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Standard Chartered, and does not constitute investment advice.)