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Wall Street analysts point out that, given the high financing costs, the current liquidity tightness in the U.S. money market may persist throughout November, which could force the Federal Reserve to take emergency measures to enhance liquidity before officially halting the balance sheet reduction on December 1.
Last Friday's closing saw the secured overnight financing rate ( SOFR ) surge by 18 basis points. This is the largest single-day increase since March 2020, outside of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle. This rate reflects the financing costs in the overnight repurchase market.
Mark Cabana, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America, stated, "The December 1st date for the end of the balance sheet reduction at ( is just an internal compromise they've reached. I suspect the market will soon force them to take action."
Bank of America strategists believe that the Federal Reserve has previously overconsumed its reserves, bringing them down to the "ample" threshold level—i.e., the minimum buffer needed to resist market distortions. The latest data shows that the Federal Reserve's bank reserves have now fallen to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level since September 2020.
Logan, who served in the Markets Group of the New York Fed for over twenty years, argues that central banks should keep money market rates close to or slightly below the level of the reserve rate.
Last Friday, SOFR was once 32 basis points higher than IORB, marking the largest spread since 2020.
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