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Today's important news
👉On November 18th, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the 7-day average of BTC's Profit Supply Percentage (PSIP) has fallen below 70%, indicating that this round of decline has pushed nearly 30% of the chips on the entire chain into a loss state. If we exclude BTC that has not moved for a long time, lost, and similar to Satoshi Nakamoto's addresses, this ratio is expected to reach over 40%.
According to data statistics from previous years, in the first round of decline during the cycle of bull to bear over the past 10 years, PSIP has always reached the current position, followed by a rebound after a wave of extreme emotional pressure. This was the case in both 2018 and 2020, especially in 2020, which was compounded by the 519 black swan event.
👉 US employment data, the number of initial jobless claims for the week was 232,000.
👉Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated after his first bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that the central bank is still gradually adjusting the degree of monetary easing, indicating a firm intention to raise interest rates.
👉Christian Lenk, an analyst at the German Central Cooperative Bank, stated in the report that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, after which it will take more cautious actions.
and predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates twice more next year, in March and June, each by 25 basis points.
The German Central Cooperative Bank expects that, despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, rising inflation will still push up the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Due to temporary tariff impacts and a massive government deficit, U.S. inflation is expected to rise in the coming quarters. The long end of the yield curve may further increase, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds expected to rise to 4.50% (currently at 4.103%) within the next three months and to 4.60% within six months.
In times of chaos, one should "build high walls, accumulate grain, and wait to become king." Actively reduce leverage and invest in potential varieties; only after the chaos will it be the time for 🐶🐶 to rise to power.
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