The altcoin market for #鲍威尔讲话 is as fast as a wrong food delivery order - just placed an order saying I wanted it spicy, and the rider is already knocking at the door, only to find that it's all sweet when I open it. Yesterday I was watching a certain coin rise by 5 points, and today it's turning green with panic, the open orders depth is as thin as a cicada's wing, and dumping 50,000 U directly brings the price back to three years ago.

Where did the money go? It didn't run away, it just became smarter. Among the friends around me who play with coins, nine out of ten have moved their money to BTC and SOL mining pools to earn interest. Isn't 8% annualized profit tempting? Who still wants to gamble on those things that could drop to zero at any time? Occasionally, when there's capital looking for excitement, the first thing to do is to analyze the data on the chain: did the team's tokens just get unlocked? Turn around and run, no one wants to be the fool.

Why can't alts rise? After losing a sum last month, I figured it out. First, it's all about speculating on concepts. Terms like Web3, ZK, AI + blockchain are just cycled through to tell the same story. When you check the on-chain records of these projects, apart from the official bots trying to create presence, real transactions are pitifully few—it's just an old wine in a new bottle for harvesting retail investors.

Second, the valuation has long been blown out of proportion. During the bull market in 2021, VCs discounted the expected future of projects over the next ten years into the coin price, and retail investors became high-position buyers as soon as they came online. Remember that coin last October that claimed to "take down e-commerce giants"? It plummeted 88% in three days, directly shattering the faith. On the contrary, those small projects quietly working on on-chain invoicing systems and buying back tokens with real money only fell by 8%. The market finally woke up: cash flow is worth more than PPT.

Want to survive in altcoins as a retail investor? You need to change your approach. Don’t treat it like a scratch card; treat it as project research. When BTC is consolidating, funds will look for "small opportunities"—at this time, focus on trading volume; enter when it expands by 20% for three consecutive days, and don’t hold positions for more than five working days. Treating short-term trading as long-term belief is just digging a pit for yourself.

The practical method is very simple: open Dune to analyze the daily revenue data of the protocol, and compare it with the fully diluted valuation (FDV). Only those that meet the formula "revenue × 30 < FDV" are worth adding to your watchlist; the rest should be thrown into the blacklist. The current altcoin market is no longer an era of public frenzy, but rather a battlefield of "selected small circles."

When the next round of liquidity easing comes, make sure not to get the order wrong: first look at on-chain data, then calculate valuation, and finally check popularity. If you make a mistake at any step, it could mean losing everything. On the path of compound interest, one person may go fast, but a group can go far. If you are also exploring a steady rhythm, feel free to share ideas together.