#美联储恢复降息节奏

📈 Market expectations have shifted dramatically! CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December exceeds 80%, with signs of a easing macro environment.
According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch", market expectations for the December interest rate decision have risen to 82.9%.
Significant shift in expectations: The 82.9% high probability reflects a major shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This indicates that after the increase in dovish voices within the Fed (such as Daly), traders have generally begun to price in a more mainstream monetary environment.
Macroeconomic easing pressure: This expected change helps alleviate concerns in the UAE market about high interest rates being maintained for a long time. While a rate cut is not 100% certain, the macro headwinds facing risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) are marginally improving.
Potential support for liquidity: Expectations of interest rates easing are conducive to enhancing market risk appetite, providing potential liquidity support for assets such as BTC/ETH.
⚠️ Fei Ge's suggestion: Although the market pricing has highly leaned towards interest rate cuts, the final decision still needs to wait for the FOMC meeting in December. We should view this as a significant reduction in macro risk, rather than a guarantee that a bull market is imminent. Strategically, it is advisable to maintain a strategic allocation to fundamentally sound assets (L2, RWA, etc.), while continuing to monitor the stability of the market's technical landscape.